Saturday, December 19, 2020

Tropical Depression "Vicky" is now over the Sulu Sea

Wazzup Pilipinas!


Dearest Typhoon, 

It may appear unusual and irregular to raise our hearts to you in JOYFUL WONDER, for in the past generations you have been considered a threat that the humankind and the rest of the world must fear. But today, we welcome you in gratitude as a NECESSARY EVENT on this planet. You are part of the Creator’s wisdom that guides the beautiful course of the universe.

We acknowledge our vulnerability against you. We are not masters, after all, but lame creatures that cannot escape from your wrath. We have confused our arrogance against the power of nature. Both good and bad people must endure from you.

You do not come to punish us. Considering that you hit us SEVERAL TIMES in a year, it is never a surprise when you visit us frequently. This is a chance for us to observe you in RHYTHMIC REGULARITY. There is enough time for us to prepare or flee. You are making us humble and wise.

You are not our foe. We do not wish that you spare us and our loved ones from your rage. THE REAL ENEMY IS OUR UNPREPAREDNESS, our attitude of complaining and blaming, our reduced minds of not owning responsibilities and duties to protect ourselves from the risks of living in this world.

And so, we thank you, dearest Typhoon. We beseech you to inspire us all to grow in humility. When our loved ones cannot defend themselves from your grand fury, inspire us all to show them charity, to ease their suffering, to provide for their immediate needs, and to live simple lives in SOLIDARITY and COMPASSION.

Sincerely yours,

Filipino people

Hazards affecting land areas:

• Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS #1) will have strong breeze to near gale conditions during the passage of the tropical cyclone. However, it must be noted that gusty conditions are likely over most of Luzon and Visayas that are not under TCWS (especially in coastal and mountainous areas) due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.

• Heavy rainfall: The combined effects of Tropical Depression VICKY and Tail-End of a Frontal System (Shear Line) will bring:

     o Today: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Visayas, Aurora, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and the northern and central portions of Palawan including Calamian, Cuyo, and Cagayancillo Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over mainland Cagayan Valley, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Metro Manila, and the rest of Central Luzon, MIMAROPA and Cordillera Administrative Region

     o Tomorrow: Heavy to intense rains over Bicol Region, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, Quirino, and Nueva Vizcaya. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Oriental Mindoro, Kalayaan Islands, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, CALABARZON, and MIMAROPA.

     o Flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged periods of rainfall, especially in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and in localities that received significant antecedent rainfall over the past couple of days or weeks. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings in their respective areas of responsibility while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue general flood advisories and river basin flood advisories/bulletins as appropriate.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and the tropical depression will bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5 m) over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon, the seaboard of Aurora, the eastern seaboard of Quezon including Polillo Islands, the seaboard of Camarines Norte, the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur, the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes, the eastern seaboard of Albay including Rapu-Rapu Islands, the eastern seaboard of Sorsogon, the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar, the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar including Homonhon Island, the eastern seaboard  of Dinagat Islands, the eastern seaboard of Surigao del Norte, the seaboard of Surigao del Sur, and the eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental. Sea travel is risky over these waters especially for small sea vessels. 

• Moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 4.0 m) will be experienced over the coastal waters of areas under TCWS #1, the seaboards of Agusan del Norte, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, and Lanao del Norte, and the remaining seaboards of Luzon, Visayas, Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Islands. Sea travel is risky over these waters especially for small sea vessels. 

Track and intensity outlook:

• Track: “VICKY” is forecast to move generally west-northwestward over Sulu Sea. On the forecast track, “VICKY” is forecast to cross the northern or central portion of Palawan between this afternoon or evening. The tropical depression is likely to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow afternoon or evening.

• Intensity: VICKY is forecast to remain a tropical depression while crossing the Philippine archipelago. The likelihood of intensification is forecast to increase once the tropical depression reaches the West Philippine Sea.

Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "VICKY" was estimated based on all available data at 150 km West of Dipolog City, Zamboanga del Norte (8.8°N, 122.0°E).  

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. 

Movement: Moving Westward at 25 km/h. 

Forecast Positions 

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 125 km Northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan (10.5°N, 117.9°E)

• 48 Hour (Monday morning):120 km South Southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (10.0°N, 113.7°E)

• 72 Hour (Tuesday morning): 455 km Southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (8.0°N, 111.3°E) 


TCWS 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours) 


The northern and central portions of Palawan (Araceli, Dumaran, Taytay, El Nido, San Vicente, Roxas, Puerto Princesa City, Aborlan, Narra, Quezon) including Calamian, Cuyo, Cagayancillo, and Kalayaan Islands


The southern portion of Cebu (Pinamungahan, San Fernando, Carcar, Aloguinsan, Barili, Sibonga, Dumanjug, Ronda, Alcantara, Argao, Moalboal, Badian, Dalaguete, Alegria, Alcoy, Malabuyoc, Boljoon, Ginatilan, Oslob, Samboan, Santander), the extreme western portion of Bohol (Loon, Tagbilaran City, Dauis, Panglao, Cortes, Maribojoc), Siquijor, Negros Oriental, the central and southern portions of Negros Occidental (San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto, Talisay City, Bacolod City, Murcia, Bago City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, San Enrique, La Carlota City, La Castellana, Moises Padilla, Pontevedra, Hinigaran, Isabela, Binalbagan, Himamaylan City, Ilog, Kabankalan City, Cauayan, Candoni, Sipalay City, Hinoba-An), Guimaras, the southern portion of Iloilo (Barotac Nuevo, Dingle, Anilao, Duenas, Lambunao, Dumangas, Pototan, Zarraga, Mina, Badiangan, Janiuay, Maasin, Cabatuan, New Lucena, Santa Barbara, Leganes, Iloilo City, Pavia, Alimodian, San Miguel, Oton, Leon, Tubungan, Igbaras, Guimbal, Tigbauan, Miagao, San Joaquin), and the southern portion of Antique (Bugasong, Laua-An, Valderrama, San Remigio, Patnongon, Belison, Sibalom, San Jose, Hamtic, Tobias Fornier, Anini-Y) 


Misamis Occidental, the northern and central portions of Zamboanga del Norte (Siocon, Baliguian, Gutalac, Kalawit, Labason, Tampilisan, Liloy, Godod, Bacungan, Salug, Sindangan, Siayan, Manukan, Jose Dalman, Sergio Osmena Sr., Pres. Manuel A. Roxas, Katipunan, Dipolog City, Pinan, Mutia, La Libertad, Polanco, Rizal, Sibutad, Dapitan City), Zamboanga del Sur, and Zamboanga Sibugay

Impacts of the wind:

• Very light or no damage to low risk structures, 

• Light damage to medium to high risk structures

• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged

• Twigs of small trees may be broken.

• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 in other areas is hereby lifted.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.

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