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Tuesday, October 8, 2024

UP Mathematicians Introduce a Different Approach in Detecting Potential Stock Market Crashes

Wazzup Pilipinas!?



The process of Topological Data Analysis. (Photo credit: RiƱon et. al. 2024)

A data analysis method that borrows concepts from topology – the so-called “rubber-sheet geometry” – may soon find its way to a stock trader’s toolkit in analyzing market movements. This method, called Topological Data Analysis (TDA), uncovers patterns in large datasets, preparing them for deeper analysis.

In a study published in the Philippine Journal of Science, Ela Mae RiƱon and Dr. Rachelle Sambayan of the UP Diliman College of Science Institute of Mathematics (UPD-CS IM) demonstrated that TDA can be used as an early warning signal for stock market crashes. Their study, which analyzed stock data of three Philippine companies from 2019 to 2021, successfully anticipated periods when the market was about to crash.

“The findings suggest that [TDA] can help identify industries most affected during economic downturns, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, aiding investors and policymakers in minimizing risks,” they said.


The T in Topological Data Analysis

To understand TDA, it may be helpful to compare it with how we observe stars. At first glance, the night sky appears as a seemingly random plot of stars scattered across the vast canvas of the universe. However, with extended observation, patterns emerge: clusters of stars, constellations, and voids become apparent the moment we recognize them. As we continue to gaze at the sky, the random stars fade into the background, while the clusters, constellations, and voids take the spotlight.

This effect is similar to what TDA does with large sets of data points. Essentially, TDA reveals hidden geometric structures within datasets, allowing insights to be drawn from what previously looked like an ambiguous clump of points. “TDA helps uncover patterns, such as clusters forming constellations, loops, or voids,” said the authors.

One tool in TDA, called persistent homology, follows a series of steps to systematically uncover patterns. First, researchers draw a small ball around the data points. Next, they gradually expand the balls until some of them overlap. When this happens, they connect the corresponding points. The balls continue to expand until the points form various figures, which are then classified into what are called homology groups.

Researchers classify the figures into three homology groups: connected components, which are open shapes like line segments; loops, which are closed shapes like triangles; and cavities, which are shapes that extend to the third dimension. As the balls expand, the figures can change from one homology group to another. A connected component, for example, might attach to a data point that closes it off, transforming it into a loop.

As the balls expand, the points connect, forming different homology groups. (Photo credit: RiƱon et. al. 2024)

Throughout this process, researchers observe how quickly the figures change homology groups. Figures that switch groups over a short range of ball sizes are considered noise, while those that persist for wider ranges are deemed more significant. Eventually, when the balls are large enough, they will all overlap and all points will be connected into one big structure, marking the end of the process.

Which figures quickly change and which persist is the core idea of TDA, revealing key features of the data. Moreover, the authors explained that “unlike standard methods, TDA is robust to noise and can detect complex patterns that might otherwise go unnoticed, offering a deeper understanding of high-dimensional data.”


Putting TDA to the Test

Dr. Sambayan and RiƱon applied TDA to the stock price data of three Philippine companies – Cebu Air (CEB), PAL Holdings (PAL), and Century Pacific Food (CNPF) – from January 2019 to January 2021. They found that when the market was about to crash, the data points began to cluster together, which made their corresponding figures more likely to change homology groups. In other words, the persistence of homology groups weakens as the stock prices start to plummet.

“This weakening of persistence is unexpected because it reveals a distinct change in the data's topological structure during market downturns, which contrasts with the scattered point clouds observed during stable periods,” the authors explained.

To track these changes, they used a persistence landscape, a chart that maps out the crash probability of a stock. In 2019, during a period when CEB was about to crash, its persistence landscape spiked, indicating a high crash probability of 40-60%. Similarly, in early 2020, the landscape showed a high crash probability prior to another CEB crash, which was attributed to pandemic travel bans and lockdowns.

Their study also revealed that TDA is indeed robust to noise, which refers to ordinary fluctuations within the data. Stock prices naturally fluctuate, but not every dip signals an impending crash. Unlike CEB, both PAL and CNPF were more stable during the onset of the pandemic. Although they experienced minor dips during this period, they did not experience a significant crash, which the model correctly anticipated.

However, the authors noted that they only applied the analysis to three companies over a brief period and that other markets or time frames might yield different results. “Additionally, the study's approach to determining thresholds and window sizes may need further refinement to ensure consistency and accuracy in different contexts,” they said.

To further test TDA, the authors recommend extending the analysis to other markets and time frames. “Another avenue for future research is applying the TDA approach to other types of time series data, such as exchange rates, to explore its effectiveness in detecting structural changes and understanding the behavior of stock prices and other financial indicators under different economic conditions,” they concluded.







By: Harvey Sapigao

Dive into the Excitement: Gamezone-Slot's Thrilling World


Wazzup Pilipinas!?


Embarking on the thrilling journey into the captivating world of online slot games can be an exhilarating yet daunting experience, especially for newcomers. With an abundance of platforms available, finding a trustworthy and legitimate space to indulge in your gaming interests within the Philippines can prove to be a challenging ordeal. However, the search for a secure, reliable, and downright fun online gaming environment ends with Gamezone-Slot. This platform emerges as a beacon of entertainment, offering a seamless blend of excitement and safety that players have been yearning for. Gamezone Slot is not just any gaming platform; it is a gateway to an unforgettable online gaming adventure that you'll cherish.
 

A Closer Look at Gamezone-Slot

Gamezone-Slot shines as a top online gaming site, brilliantly bringing the exciting world of slot machines online. It makes playing easier and more fun, whether you're at home on a computer or out with your smartphone. The site is designed to be user-friendly, offering a seamless and enjoyable gaming experience without any hassle. It features a wide selection of Lucky Slot games, carefully chosen to appeal to different tastes. This ensures that every player can find something they love. With Gamezone-Slot, you get the best of both worlds: the traditional thrill of slots, updated for today’s digital age, making it a go-to place for gamers looking for fun and variety in their gaming adventures.

● Classic Slots: For those with a penchant for nostalgia and simplicity, the Classic Jili slots are an impeccable choice. Characterised by their straightforward gameplay, these games typically feature a limited number of paylines, making them effortlessly understandable even for beginners. The iconic gameplay symbols—encompassing fruits, bars, and sevens—evoke a sense of familiarity and comfort, making these slots ideal for those who revel in a more unadorned and straightforward gaming experience.

● Video Slots: For players seeking a visually stunning and interactive gaming experience, Gamezone-Slot’s video slots are the answer. These games are a feast for the senses, boasting rich graphics, cool animations, and immersive sound effects. Beyond their aesthetic appeal, these slots often include captivating storylines and special symbols such as wild scatters and bonus rounds, offering additional ways to win. Whether you're drawn to fantasy adventures or movie-based themes, video slots are designed to transport you to new worlds.

● Progressive Jackpot Slots: If you’re on the hunt for that life-altering jackpot win, look no further than Progressive Jackpot Slots. Here's where dreams are made, with the jackpot prise increasing with every spin, adding an extra layer of excitement to your gaming experience. The anticipation builds with each game, knowing that any spin could potentially turn your life around.

Each slot game type at Gamezone-Slot brings its own unique brand of excitement, catering to every preference, whether you are drawn to classic games, video slots, or the allure of progressive jackpot slots. At Gamezone Slot, the choice is yours, offering a vast selection to ensure you find exactly what you're looking for.
 

Why Filipinos Can't Get Enough of Gamezone-Slot

Gamezone-Slot distinguishes itself in the hearts of Filipino players, not just through its captivating gaming repertoire but also its unmatched convenience and reliability. This platform embodies the qualities most cherished by gamers in the Philippines in their online escapades. It presents a vibrant tableau of high-definition graphics, fluid gameplay, and enveloping sound effects, making each session a lifelike casino experience. Additionally, Gamezone-Slot's commitment to enriching player experiences shines through its generous allocation of bonuses and rewards, further cementing its status as a preferred gaming destination. This blend of technological excellence and player-centric incentives forms the backbone of Gamezone-Slot’s appeal, offering a digital haven where trust and enjoyment converge, making it a standout choice among the gaming community.
 

Winning at Gamezone-Slot: Tips and Strategies

Gamezone-Slot strikes a unique balance, emphasising not only the quintessential role of luck in slot games but also equipping its players with strategies and tips to enhance their winning possibilities. The excitement begins with understanding the rhythm of the game; players are advised to start with small bets. This method allows them to get a feel for the tempo and nuances of the game without risking a substantial portion of their bankroll. Speaking of bankrolls, effective management is paramount in the art of slot gaming. Players are encouraged to set a budget before they start playing and stick to it, ensuring that their gaming experience is both enjoyable and financially responsible.

Additionally, Gamezone-Slot offers various bonuses that, when used wisely, can significantly extend gameplay or increase chances of a win. These bonuses can range from free spins to cash bonuses, providing players with more opportunities to play and win. Utilising these bonuses can be a game-changer, especially for beginners looking to establish themselves.

By blending luck with strategic gameplay, Gamezone-Slot offers a fulfilling and dynamically engaging experience that caters to both beginner and experienced players, ensuring that every participant can navigate through the game with confidence and a better chance of success.
 

Delving into the GameZone Slot Array

Featuring popular games like Super Gems 2, Millionaire, Super Gems, Fortune Ace, Candy Rush, and Candy Craze, Gamezone-Slot offers a rich and varied selection of themes and game mechanics, catering to an array of interests and preferences. Whether it's the captivating bonus features of Super Gems 2, the relaxed gameplay of Millionaire with its auto-spin feature, or the vibrant and exciting worlds of Candy Rush and Candy Craze, there’s something for everyone to enjoy.
 

Embark on the Ultimate Spin Adventure

In essence, Gamezone-Slot is more than just an online gaming platform; it's a community where Filipino gamers of all skill levels can find joy, excitement, and maybe even a touch of fortune. With its diverse selection of online slot games ranging from the dynamic and story-rich Video slots to the nostalgic Classic slots and the thrilling Progressive Jackpot slots, there's no shortage of entertainment. The platform’s commitment to quality, player safety, and an exceptional gaming experience sets it apart, making it the go-to choice for online slot gaming in the Philippines. Why wait any longer? Dive into the fun and excitement at Gamezone Slot today!

APAC Video Streaming Market to Reach $112.89 Billion by 2030, Agora Targets Real-Time Communication Expansion


Agora, Inc. (NASDAQ: API), a pioneer in real-time engagement APIs, has swiftly established itself as a leader in the APAC region by capturing the largest market share in the Real-Time Communication (RTC) industry.

Singapore, 3 October 2024 – The Asia-Pacific (APAC) video streaming market is projected to experience explosive growth, with market size reaching $112.89 billion by 2030, driven by a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.5% from 2023. This expansion is fueled by surging demand for mobile-first streaming services, particularly in key markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia, where mobile content consumption via smartphones dominates, with 69% and 86% of users respectively streaming on these devices. Amid this boom, Agora, Inc. (NASDAQ: API), a global leader in Real-Time Communication (RTC) technology, is positioning itself to capitalize on these trends, bringing innovative communication solutions to meet the evolving needs of this rapidly expanding market.

The APAC region's video streaming landscape is increasingly defined by a mobile-first approach, necessitating high-performance, low-latency communication solutions to ensure seamless and real-time user experiences. Agora’s cutting-edge real-time engagement technology empowers developers to integrate voice, video, and interactive features effortlessly, making it possible for businesses to deliver the high-quality, instantaneous interactions that users now expect. As the demand for real-time communication (RTC) continues to rise, Agora is uniquely positioned to support businesses looking to engage more deeply with their audiences.

“We are seeing unparalleled growth in the video streaming market, and Agora’s technology is at the forefront of this revolution,” said Tony Wang, Co-Founder and Chief Revenue Officer at Agora. “Our commitment to innovation ensures we meet current demands while anticipating future trends like AI integration, multimodal communication, and immersive AR and VR experiences. The key is enabling businesses to deliver real-time, interactive experiences that keep users engaged, no matter where they are.”

Agora's Real-Time Engagement Platform currently supports more than 60 billion minutes of live voice and video each month, serving over 1,700 clients in more than 200 countries. This represents a 14% year-on-year increase, underscoring the platform's growing significance in powering critical communication services across various industries. Agora’s technology has become integral to the success of 60% of the top 1v1 video apps by revenue, 45% of leading dating apps in Southeast Asia, and 65% of the top 20 voice chat rooms in the region. Furthermore, Agora holds a dominant 40% share among leading live-streaming apps, the highest among third-party RTC providers.

Shaping the future with AI and multimodal communication

Agora’s vision goes beyond traditional RTC technology. The company aims to revolutionize the AI landscape with multimodal solutions combining voice, video, and chat to enable real-time, AI-powered experiences with ultra-low latency, even under varying network conditions.

Multimodal AI is set to transform business operations by fostering human-AI collaboration. For instance, in telehealth, Agora’s AI solutions could streamline diagnoses and make healthcare more accessible. Similarly, sectors like education, entertainment, and customer service are expected to benefit from these AI-driven systems, which offer real-time insights, generate creative content, and provide user-based recommendations.

Innovations like AI-based noise suppression and real-time transcription (RTT) are already integrated into Agora’s platform, enabling superior communication experiences in noisy or low-bandwidth environments. These technologies ensure businesses remain competitive, where user experience and reliability are paramount.

"Agora is actively responding to the rapid shifts in the APAC video streaming landscape," added Effie Fang, Director of Agora’s APAC Sales Team. "Our technology not only supports but also drives innovation in how businesses interact with their audiences. Leveraging our advanced real-time communication solutions, companies can enhance user engagement and capitalize on the market’s explosive growth."

In Indonesia, Everywhere.id has used Agora’s real-time communication technology to drive a 71% boost in user interactions, achieving 13 million minutes of peak monthly engagement. Similarly, Fastwork, a prominent freelancing platform, doubled its chat-to-payment conversions after integrating Agora’s real-time calling API, demonstrating the transformative impact of seamless communication on business performance.

Addressing industry trends and challenges

As the RTC industry evolves, Agora is tackling key trends and challenges, including the rise of 5G, the integration of AI, IoT, and machine learning, and the growing importance of AR/VR and metaverse applications. Agora is not only keeping pace but actively driving these developments. By optimizing its solutions for 5G networks, Agora ensures that its platform delivers top-tier audio and video quality, regardless of location.

Security and privacy are critical concerns in the RTC space. Agora has introduced industry-leading safeguards to protect its users, with a strong focus on compliance and data security, positioning the company as a leader in a market that prioritizes trust and safety.

Looking ahead: Agora’s strategic roadmap

As the APAC video streaming market continues to grow, Agora is focused on staying ahead by pushing the boundaries of AI and multimodal communication. These advancements set the bar for real-time, AI-powered solutions in broadcasting, customer service, and healthcare.

Regional expertise is a key part of Agora’s strategy. By investing in localized training, the company ensures its teams can deliver tailored solutions that meet the unique needs of each market. This ability to customize offerings for different industries and regions gives Agora a strong competitive edge.

Agora is also expanding into high-growth markets like South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, particularly in sectors such as media, entertainment, and live commerce. These areas are rapidly growing, making Agora's technology indispensable in meeting the demands of these industries.

Through focused marketing initiatives, Agora is enhancing its brand visibility and reinforcing its leadership position in real-time communication technology. With innovation, customer success, and market leadership at its core, Agora is shaping the future of communication across APAC.

About Agora

About Agora.io
Headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Agora is a pioneer and global leader in Real-Time Engagement Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), providing developers with simple, flexible, and powerful application programming interfaces, or APIs, to embed real-time voice, video, interactive live-streaming, chat, whiteboard, and artificial intelligence capabilities into their applications.


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