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Wednesday, October 29, 2025

The Curve Bends, But the Climate Crisis Roars: A Synthesis Report Unveils Progress and a Perilous Pace


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The 2025 Synthesis Report from the UNFCCC on global 2035 country climate plans offers a contradictory portrait of humanity's fight against climate change: a clear shift in direction, yet a desperate shortfall in speed. The report finds that global emissions are beginning to bend downward and that countries are submitting the most comprehensive set of national climate commitments (NDCs) to date. This analysis reflects national plans formally submitted by 30 September 2025, covering roughly one-third of global emissions.


"Through UN-convened climate cooperation and national efforts, humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough," stated UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell. The direction of travel is improving, but there is a "serious need for more speed".


Bending the Curve: New Commitments Show Global Alignment

The climate plans detailed in the Synthesis Report are the most comprehensive set of national commitments to date. The key findings illustrate a promising global trend toward integration and ambition:


Global Stocktake Influence: A striking 88% of new or updated NDCs were informed by the COP28 Global Stocktake outcomes.


Whole-Economy Targets: Almost nine out of ten—89%—of new NDCs now include economy-wide targets covering all major sectors. This comprehensive approach is exemplified by countries like India, whose net-zero strategy ties together industrial growth, jobs, and climate action.


Adaptation and Loss & Damage: 73% of new plans include adaptation components. Crucially, around one-third integrate Loss and Damage measures, particularly among Small Island Developing States.


The Ocean is Finally Rising: There has been a 39% jump in ocean references, with 78% of new NDCs now referencing the ocean. This signals a "growing recognition of the vital role ocean solutions play in climate action", which includes blue carbon sequestration and shipping decarbonization.


If every current national target were fully implemented, the world would see a reduction in global emissions of around 10% by 2035.


The Warning Siren: Progress is "Far Too Slow"

Despite the positive trends, a grim consensus runs through the reactions: the world is moving "in slow motion". Leaders and analysts agree that the current trajectory is insufficient to avert catastrophic warming.


Shortfall on Science: The projected 10% emissions cut by 2035 from the submitted NDCs is a far cry from the 60% global cut that science demands. Current targets "remain far from aligned with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement".


Renewable Energy Gap: While renewables are "booming", current targets are not yet sufficient to deliver on the G20/COP28 commitments to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. Targets alone "will not deliver 1.5 ∘C".


The Funding Imperative: For many developing nations, increased ambition on mitigation is "inextricably linked" to securing adequate finance, technology, and capacity-building support.


The Dawn of Implementation: A Shift to Subnational Action

The report's recognition of a growing global trend toward multi-level governance and the inclusion of subnational actors is hailed as a positive step toward NDC delivery.


India, for example, is highlighted for its semi-federal model, pairing central targets with execution led by its states. State-level initiatives, such as Gujarat's solar leadership and Tamil Nadu's Green Climate Company, are becoming "co-architects of national decarbonization".


The Road to COP30: A Call for Radical Action

The road ahead is focused squarely on action, with COP30 labeled the 'Implementation COP'. Leaders must come to COP30 with a "significantly more ambitious approach" to:


Accelerate Transition: Put forward a concrete plan on "how to accelerate the transition away from coal beyond the current NDCs".


Unlock Investment: Create fiscal and financial conditions that make renewables, efficiency, and resilience the "most attractive investments across every sector".


Clear the Path: Deliver faster permitting, investment in grids, and predictable auctions to turn NDCs into "real megawatts".


The message is clear: the collective efforts have finally managed to bend the curve, but the climate fight demands a sprint, not a slow walk, toward a future aligned with the 1.5 ∘C goal.

Climate Inaction Is Costing Millions of Lives Every Year, Landmark Report Warns




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As heat records shatter and climate threats reach unprecedented levels, a stark new assessment reveals the devastating human toll of continued fossil fuel dependence—and a narrowing window to prevent catastrophe




The world is burning, drowning, and suffocating—and the death toll is mounting. A comprehensive new report released today paints an undeniable picture of climate change's accelerating assault on human health, with 13 out of 20 health threat indicators reaching record levels as governments backslide on their climate commitments and fossil fuel companies triple down on production plans.




The ninth annual Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report, a collaboration of 128 experts from 71 academic institutions and UN agencies worldwide, delivers a sobering verdict: our continued addiction to fossil fuels and failure to adapt to climate change is killing us—slowly at first, then all at once.




A Death Toll Measured in Millions

The numbers are staggering. Heat-related deaths have surged 23% since the 1990s, claiming an average of 546,000 lives annually between 2012 and 2021. In 2024 alone, wildfire smoke killed a record 154,000 people—a 36% increase from the decade prior. Air pollution from burning fossil fuels accounts for 2.5 million deaths each year, while unhealthy, high-carbon diets contributed to 11.8 million preventable deaths in 2022.




"This year's health assessment paints an undeniably bleak picture of the devastating health harms unfolding across the world, with record health threats from heatwaves, extreme weather, and wildfire smoke, resulting in millions of deaths," warns Dr. Marina Romanello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London. "The devastation to people's lives and livelihoods will continue to escalate unless we end our dependence on fossil fuels and ramp up efforts to adapt to climate change."




The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with catastrophic consequences rippling across the globe. The average person worldwide faced a record 16 additional days of health-threatening heat directly attributable to climate change. For the most vulnerable—infants under one year and adults over 65—the exposure was even worse: an average of 20 days of extreme heat annually, representing increases of 389% and 304% respectively compared to the 1986-2005 baseline.




The Economic Stranglehold

The climate crisis isn't just killing people—it's strangling economies and overwhelming public health budgets. Extreme heat caused a record 639 billion hours of lost work potential in 2024, translating to approximately $1.09 trillion in income losses—roughly 1% of global GDP. Heat-related deaths among those over 65 alone carried an economic burden of $261 billion.




In perhaps the most damning indictment of current energy policies, governments worldwide spent $956 billion in net fossil fuel subsidies in 2023 to keep domestic energy prices stable—far exceeding the $300 billion annually pledged at COP29 to support climate-vulnerable nations. Even more alarmingly, 15 of 87 countries responsible for 93% of global carbon emissions spent more subsidizing fossil fuels than on their entire national health budgets in 2023.




"The increasing affordability and accessibility of clean renewable energy presents an opportunity to enhance domestic energy production, reduce health damages from fossil fuels, and redirect fossil fuel subsidies toward supporting a healthy, sustainable future," Dr. Romanello emphasizes.




Food Insecurity and Disease Spread

The cascading effects of climate change are creating a perfect storm of interconnected health crises. Heat and drought drove 123 million more people into moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023 compared to the 1981-2010 average. Meanwhile, the global capacity for dengue fever transmission has increased by 49% since the 1950s, as warming temperatures expand the geographic range of disease-carrying mosquitoes.




For the 2 billion people still relying on polluting fuels in their homes—concentrated in 65 countries with limited access to clean energy—indoor air pollution caused 2.3 million avoidable deaths in 2022 alone. This energy poverty trap keeps the most vulnerable communities dependent on harmful, polluting fuel sources while wealthier nations race ahead with renewable transitions.




The Corporate Climate Criminals

While millions suffer and die, the world's largest fossil fuel companies are accelerating toward oblivion. The top 100 fossil fuel companies have increased their production plans (as of March 2025) to levels that would produce greenhouse gas emissions nearly three times what's compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2040—making health-protective adaptation efforts virtually impossible.




Private banks are bankrolling this deadly expansion. The 40 largest financial institutions invested a record $611 billion in fossil fuels in 2024—a 29% increase from 2023 and 15% more than they invested in clean energy. This financial backing of fossil fuel expansion is "threatening public health and putting national economies, on which people's livelihoods depend, at risk," the report states.




Adding insult to injury, more than 128 million hectares of forests were destroyed in 2023—a 24% increase from 2022—weakening the planet's natural capacity to mitigate climate change just when we need it most.




Political Retreat in the Face of Crisis

"The shocking reality is that one of the greatest threats to human flourishing comes from leaders and companies backing away from their climate commitments, delaying action, and doubling down on fossil fuel production, while each additional unit of greenhouse gases increases the costs and difficulty of adaptation efforts," warns Professor Nahid Ahmeli, co-chair of Working Group 4 of the Lancet Countdown.




The report reveals a disturbing pattern: as climate impacts intensify, political will to address them is weakening. Some of the world's wealthiest nations are cutting foreign aid, constraining financial support for climate action and leaving populations worldwide facing mounting dangers without adequate protection.




"If we remain trapped in our excessive dependence on fossil fuels, health systems, cooling infrastructure, and disaster response capacities will soon be overwhelmed, putting the health and lives of the world's 8 billion people at increasing risk," Professor Ahmeli cautions.




A Cruel Irony: Those Suffering Most Did Least to Cause the Crisis

The data reveals a cruel injustice at the heart of the climate crisis: the countries suffering most from climate consequences are also the most politically engaged on climate and health issues, yet they're not leading the clean energy transition—because they lack access to technology and resources.




In low-income countries, clean renewable energy accounts for just 3.5% of electricity generation compared to 13.3% in wealthy nations. Meanwhile, 88% of households in poor countries still depend on polluting biomass for cooking and heating. This inequality in access to clean energy keeps the most vulnerable communities trapped in dependency on harmful, polluting fuel sources while their populations bear the brunt of climate impacts they did least to cause.




"After nine years of global monitoring, it's clear that these health damages represent the price we pay as a result of world leaders' continued failure to take necessary action to combat climate change and protect health—a price paid disproportionately by the most vulnerable countries that contributed least to this crisis," notes Professor Stella Hartinger, Director of Lancet Countdown Latin America.




Signs of Hope in the Darkness

Yet amid this litany of devastation, the report identifies genuine reasons for hope. While some national governments retreat from climate commitments, local governments, individuals, civil society, and the health sector are stepping up to chart a healthier future—potentially signaling the beginning of transformative, large-scale climate action.




According to data from the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), the world's largest voluntary system for reporting climate action progress, a growing number of cities (834 of 858 that reported in 2024) have completed or plan to complete climate risk assessments. The health sector has shown notable leadership, with global health-related emissions falling 16% between 2021 and 2022. Nearly two-thirds of medical students worldwide received education in climate and health in 2024, building capacity for further progress.




The transition away from coal, particularly in wealthy countries, has prevented approximately 160,000 premature deaths annually between 2010 and 2022 by reducing air pollution from fine particulate matter. The share of electricity generated from modern renewable sources reached a record 12% in 2022, while the shift to clean energy is creating healthier, more sustainable jobs. More than 16 million people worked directly or indirectly in renewable energy in 2023—an 18.3% increase from 2022.




"Climate action remains one of the greatest health opportunities of the 21st century—it drives development, stimulates innovation, provides employment, and reduces energy poverty," explains Professor Thaddeus Mhebhaudi, Director of Lancet Countdown Africa. "Realizing the multiple benefits of a health-focused response requires exploiting opportunities not yet leveraged for climate change mitigation and enhancing resilience to its growing impacts."




The Final Warning

"As an increasing number of world leaders threaten to roll back the limited progress achieved so far, the urgent need emerges for immediate efforts at all levels and across all sectors to accelerate climate action that will deliver immediate health benefits," warns Professor Anthony Costello, co-chair of the Lancet Countdown.




"While some governments insist on supporting an ultimately unsustainable, unhealthy, and uninhabitable reality, people around the world are paying the terrible price for this. We must build on the momentum we're seeing from local action: implementing a just and equitable transformation that protects health requires concerted efforts from everyone."




The report's message is unequivocal: we have the solutions to avoid climate catastrophe, and communities and governments worldwide are proving that progress is possible. Clean energy transitions, urban adaptation efforts, and shifts toward healthier, climate-friendly diets could save more than 10 million lives annually. But time is running out.




The choice facing humanity is stark: continue down the path of fossil fuel dependence toward a future of disease, disaster, and premature death for millions—or seize this moment to accelerate climate action that protects health, saves lives, and builds a sustainable future. The cost of inaction is measured in millions of lives. The question is whether we'll act before it's too late.




The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change 2025 report was produced by 128 experts from 71 academic institutions and UN agencies worldwide, led by University College London in strategic partnership with the World Health Organization. The report was released ahead of the UN's COP30 climate conference.

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

A Clarion Call for Justice: Philippine Conference on Women, Peace & Security


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When women rise, peace prevails. When women lead, nations transform.


This October 28-30, 2025, the Philippines stands at the threshold of a historic moment—one that will reverberate across generations and reshape the landscape of peace and security in our nation and beyond.


At the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City, approximately 600 voices will unite in a powerful chorus demanding what has been denied for far too long: the full, meaningful, and transformative participation of women in building lasting peace.


The Stakes Have Never Been Higher

In conflict zones across our archipelago and throughout the ASEAN region, women bear the heaviest burdens of violence and displacement—yet they remain systematically excluded from the peace tables where their futures are decided. This conference shatters that silence.


President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. has issued a challenge that echoes through history: recognize women's critical role in building just and lasting peace. The Philippine government's answer is this groundbreaking gathering—a testament to our commitment that inclusivity and strengthened participation are not aspirations, but imperatives.


Four Pillars, One Revolutionary Vision


Building upon the momentum of the 2024 International Conference on Women, Peace and Security and the historic Pasay Declaration, this conference advances an unprecedented agenda through the National Action Plan on Women, Peace, and Security (NAPWPS) 2023-2033:


PILLAR I: Empowerment and Participation

Because peace without women's voices is not peace—it is merely the absence of war. We demand holistic and meaningful participation in every peace and security process, from grassroots dialogues to national policy tables.


PILLAR II: Protection and Prevention


Because women in conflict-affected areas face intersecting vulnerabilities that demand comprehensive protection. We will safeguard human rights across all diverse and intersecting identities, leaving no woman behind.


PILLAR III: Promotion and Mainstreaming


Because gender equality cannot be an afterthought. The government commits to embedding the Women, Peace and Security agenda into every peace and security initiative, making women's empowerment central to national policy.


PILLAR IV: Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability, and Learning

Because promises without accountability are empty rhetoric. This revolutionary pillar integrates Civil Society Organizations into systematic oversight, ensuring transparency, adaptive learning, and contextually grounded assessment of our collective progress.


Who Answers This Call


The architects of change will converge: Department of Budget and Management Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman, OPAPRU Secretary Carlito G. Galvez Jr., Philippine Commission on Women Chairperson Ermelita V. Valdeavilla, OPAPRU Executive Director Susana "Toots" Marcaida, KAPATIRAN Chair Ma. Veronica "Ka Inca" Tabara, and Deputy BTA Parliament Speaker MP Atty. Laisa M. Alamia.


But they will not stand alone. Joining them are 600 delegates—government officials, grassroots women leaders, civil society organizations, feminist movements, youth peacebuilders, faith-based organizations, academic institutions, research institutions, media practitioners, private sector partners, regional partners from ASEAN Member States, and international development organizations.


This Is Our Moment


The Women, Peace and Security discourse will no longer be shaped by distant voices and imported frameworks. It will be grounded in local voices, rooted leadership, and community knowledge—the wisdom of Filipino women who have survived, resisted, and rebuilt in the face of unimaginable adversity.


For too long, women have been told to wait their turn. That time is over.


This conference is not merely a gathering. It is a declaration. It is a movement. It is the beginning of a new era where women are not just included in peace processes—they lead them.


The revolution will be inclusive. The future will be feminist. And peace, at long last, will be real.


Philippine Conference on Women, Peace and Security


October 28-30, 2025 | Philippine International Convention Center, Pasay City

Reference: Usec. Goddes Hope Libiran, Mobile No. 09612935602


#WomenPeaceSecurity #PHWPS2025 #PeaceIsFeminist #WomenLeadPeace

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