Clean Energy Triumphs: World Reaches a Historic Climate Turning Point as Fossil Fuel Growth Halts in 2025 00

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The world has reached a monumental milestone in the clean energy transition: for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, no growth in fossil fuel generation is expected for the full year of 2025. This historic turning point is driven entirely by the explosive growth of clean power, which grew fast enough to meet—and even exceed—the world's rising electricity demand in the first three quarters of the year.

According to a new analysis by energy think tank Ember, detailed in its Q3 Global Power Report, this milestone is set to occur even as global electricity demand is projected to see a substantial increase—the sixth largest absolute increase on record at 831 TWh. The link between rising demand and rising fossil generation is finally being severed.

Solar and Wind Exceed All New Demand

The dramatic shift is thanks to record-breaking growth in solar power, combined with a moderate increase in wind generation.

Solar generation rose by an unprecedented 498 TWh (+31%) in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, the largest increase ever over a nine-month period. This massive surge means solar output in Q1-Q3 2025 has already surpassed its total output for all of 2024.

Wind generation added an additional 137 TWh (+7.6%).

The combined growth from solar and wind was 635 TWh, which successfully outpaced the global rise in electricity demand of 603 TWh (+2.7%) for the first three quarters of 2025.

Despite a fall in hydropower generation of -54 TWh and a minor increase in nuclear generation (+33 TWh) , the rapid deployment of clean power was enough to keep fossil generation flat, resulting in a minor fall of -17 TWh (-0.1%) in the first three quarters of 2025.

"Record solar power growth and stagnating fossil fuels in 2025 show how clean power has become the driving force in the power sector," stated Nicolas Fulghum, Senior Data Analyst at Ember. "Historically a growth segment, fossil power now appears to be entering a period of stagnation and managed decline".

The Global Balance Tips: China and India Lead the Decline

The global stagnation of fossil fuels was tipped into reality by significant declines in China and India, which managed to balance out smaller fossil increases in the EU and US.

Country Change in Fossil Generation (Q1-Q3 2025 vs. 2024) Key Driver of Change

China

-52 TWh (-1.1%) 

Structural decline; fast-growing renewables (including a 44% year-on-year solar growth) met all new demand.

India

-34 TWh (-3.3%) 

Temporary decline; record solar and wind growth combined with unusually mild weather conditions that substantially reduced demand for cooling.

China's contribution to clean power growth was massive, making up more than half of the Q1-Q3 solar growth at 280 TWh. The US and the EU followed with a growth of 71 TWh (+30%) and 52 TWh (+20%), respectively.

The Next Challenge: Sustained Decline

This moment marks a definitive structural shift where clean energy sources are proving they can meet and exceed the accelerating pace of global electricity demand.

For the first time outside of disruptive events like the Global Financial Crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic—years which saw low or no electricity demand growth—clean power has not only kept pace but surpassed demand growth. The share of solar and wind in the global electricity mix rose from 15.2% in Q1-Q3 2024 to 17.6% in Q1-Q3 2025, and all low-carbon sources combined achieved a 43.0% share.

The report concludes that the new challenge is to sustain this growth in 2026 and beyond, which is necessary not only to meet continued strong electricity demand but also to drive fossil generation down from its current levels. This unprecedented stagnation in 2025 is a powerful sign that the world is on the cusp of an accelerated energy transition.

The Land Trap: Global Climate Pledges Betray Forests for Unrealistic Land Schemes

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Bélém, Brazil (12 November 2025)—A new global analysis released today at the COP30 climate summit issues a stark warning: the world is facing a "land gap" and a "forest gap" that threaten to undermine the entire fight against climate change. The study finds that national climate plans submitted for COP30 are overwhelmingly relying on massive, unachievable land-based carbon removal schemes—like vast tree planting—while dangerously neglecting the crucial, immediate work of protecting existing forests.

The report, "The Land Gap 2025," led by a global consortium of experts from the University of Melbourne, concludes that the true impediment to forest protection is not merely a lack of finance, but a deeply flawed global economic system that forces countries to choose economic survival over ecosystem preservation.

"Why are so many countries ignoring forest protection as a key pillar of climate targets?" asks Kate Dooley, the report’s lead author. "The answer is that they live in a world where heavy sovereign debt burdens and industry-friendly tax and trade policies force many of them to exploit forests to keep their economies from crashing".

The Land Gap: An Area Larger Than Australia 

The analysis exposes the two critical flaws in current national climate plans:

The "Land Gap": This is the chasm between governments’ reliance on land-based efforts to meet carbon mitigation goals and what is actually achievable. The assessment of COP30 pledges reveals a startling demand for land:

To achieve their targets under the Paris Agreement, countries would have to devote just over 1 billion hectares of land to carbon removal initiatives.

This required land mass is larger than the size of Australia.

This massive level of carbon removal would put lands critical to the survival of marginalized groups—including Indigenous peoples, local communities, and smallholder farmers—at risk.

Moreover, the promised emissions savings would take decades to materialize.

The "Forest Gap": While pledges for halting and reversing deforestation are "limited" in national plans, the report reveals a massive gap between global commitments made at COP28 to halt deforestation and degradation by 2030 and the likely outcome of current pledges. The report forecasts a dismal outcome:

The annual rate of global deforestation would still be 4 million hectares in 2030.

An additional 16 million hectares of forests would be degraded.

This creates a terrifying forest gap of 20 million hectares.

Debt, Tax, and Trade: The Triple Threat to Forests 

The experts argue that focusing solely on innovative financing, while important, fails to address the powerful underlying forces driving forest destruction. For instance, while the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) might generate $3 to $4 billion per year, the total need to achieve 2030 forest protection goals is an astronomical $117 to $299 billion per year.

The report identifies the rules and financial flows of the global economic system as the single biggest threat to forests. They conclude that meeting climate and forest commitments requires major reforms in three key areas:

1. Providing Debt Relief

Current approaches to resolving debt crises deepen dependence on short-term commodity revenue, pushing plantations, mines, and oil wells into previously intact ecosystems.

Countries in critical biodiversity centers like the Amazon, Congo basins, and Southeast Asia are being forced by austerity and debt payment schedules to rapidly expand exports—often by sacrificing their forests—to avoid credit downgrades.

The example of Cameroon is cited, where debt burdens and IMF austerity requirements have caused a dramatic rise in forest loss to increase hardwood, cotton, and cocoa production.

2. Pursuing Tax Reforms

Cross-border tax abuse and illicit financial flows deprive Global South countries of essential revenue needed for protection efforts.

International financial secrecy shields multinational corporations from accountability and facilitates environmental criminality, including illegal logging and land conversion.

The report singles out the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation as a historic opportunity to create a sustainable development tax system.

It also cites proposals advanced by Brazil to create a "wealth tax" that could generate an estimated $200 to $500 billion annually.

3. Revising Trade Rules

Current trade policies have fallen short by focusing primarily on limiting trade in illegal wood instead of addressing the expansion of industrial-scale agricultural production, which is the single largest driver of deforestation.

Trade rules reinforce the power of global commodity traders at the expense of local producers, undermining the authority of governments to police harmful practices.

Promising reforms involve shifting agriculture trade policies to prioritize sustainable food systems, smallholder farmers, and resilient ecosystems.

A Necessary Reckoning 

"There is an urgent need for leaders at COP30 to acknowledge that we will not make progress in the fight against climate change—especially when it comes to protecting forests—if we don't address the fundamental elements of our economic system that are impeding change," said Kate Horner, co-lead author of the report.

The study argues that aligning climate, biodiversity, and economic goals is possible through these reforms. Dr. Rebecca Ray of Boston University notes that reshaping these economic rules "could relieve pressure to exploit forests to meet short-term obligations, which could have an immediate impact on deforestation levels while freeing up large amounts of money to invest in forests".

The consequences of failure—the continued destruction of the world's remaining forests and a planet on a collision course with climate catastrophe—should be sufficient motivation to act.

The Final Countdown: Global CO 2 Emissions Hit a Record High as the 1.5 ∘C Carbon Budget is 'Virtually Exhausted'

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In a stark and urgent report, the Global Carbon Budget 2025 paints a picture of a planet caught in a devastating contradiction: global fossil fuel emissions have surged to a new record high, even as the window to limit global warming to 1.5 ∘C slams shut.

New research from the Global Carbon Project confirms that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching an all-time peak. This single year's activity is expected to inject 38.1 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO 2) into the atmosphere. With this projected increase, the concentration of CO 2in the atmosphere is set to reach 425.7 ppm in 2025, marking a 52% increase above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm in 1750).

The Fading Carbon Budget: Four Years Left

The most alarming finding of the report is the immediate threat to the Paris Agreement's most ambitious target. The remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 ∘C is now considered "virtually exhausted".

Starting from the beginning of 2026, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood of keeping warming under 1.5 ∘C is a mere 50 GtC (or 170 GtCO 2).

At the projected emissions rate of 2025, this critical budget will be consumed in approximately four years.

The carbon budgets for limiting warming to 1.7 ∘C and 2 ∘C have also been severely diminished, reduced to enough for about 12 and 25 years respectively at current emission levels.

Growth in the World's Major Emitters

The overall global rise is fueled by projected increases in emissions from major economies, in some cases reversing recent positive trends.

The projected surge in global fossil fuel emissions for 2025 is driven by increases across all major fuel types, with gas, oil, and coal all expected to rise by 1.3%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively, compared to 2024 levels.

Nature's Fading Defense: The Sinks are Straining

While human emissions spike, the Earth's natural defense systems—the ocean and land carbon sinks—are showing signs of severe strain due to climate change.

The report finds that climate change and climate variability are weakening the combined land and ocean carbon sinks.

Since 1960, this weakening effect is responsible for 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration.

The ocean sink's ability to absorb carbon has been "stagnant" since 2016, a trend influenced by the recent ocean heatwave of 2023-2024 in the Northern Hemisphere.

However, the land sink—which absorbs CO 2 through natural ecosystems—is expected to show a significant recovery in 2025, returning to pre-El Niño levels. This recovery follows a strong reduction in 2024 due to the prolonged 2023-2024 El Niño weather pattern.

A Single Beacon of Hope

Despite the overall devastating trend, the research highlights that efforts to decarbonize are beginning to take root in some nations. The number of countries successfully reducing their emissions while simultaneously growing their economies nearly doubled in the last decade. During the period 2015-2024, a total of 35 countries saw their fossil CO 2​emissions decrease even as their economies expanded.

However, this progress remains insufficient to counteract the overwhelming growth in global energy demand. To keep the 1.5 ∘C goal alive, the required cuts in emissions—an average reduction of 4% of 2025 total anthropogenic emissions each year until 2050—would need to be comparable to the dramatic, global drop observed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

With the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 ∘C equivalent to less than four years of current emissions, the time for incremental change has ended. The new Global Carbon Budget makes it clear: the world must achieve an immediate, dramatic, and sustained decline in global emissions to avert the virtually exhausted climate crisis.

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The Final Countdown: Global CO 2

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  Emissions Hit a Record High as the 1.5 ∘C Carbon Budget is 'Virtually Exhausted'

In a stark and urgent report, the Global Carbon Budget 2025 paints a picture of a planet caught in a devastating contradiction: global fossil fuel emissions have surged to a new record high, even as the window to limit global warming to 1.5 ∘C slams shut.

An Alarming New Global Record

New research from the Global Carbon Project confirms that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching an all-time peak. This single year's activity is expected to inject an unprecedented 38.1 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO 2) into the atmosphere. With this projected increase, the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 425.7 ppm in 2025. This is a staggering 52% increase above the pre-industrial level of around 278 ppm in 1750.

The overall global rise is driven by increases across all major fuel types compared to 2024 levels: gas emissions are projected to rise by 1.3%, oil by 1.0%, and coal by 0.8%.

The 1.5 ∘C Carbon Budget Disappears

The most alarming finding of the report is the immediate threat to the Paris Agreement's most ambitious target. The remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 ∘C is now considered "virtually exhausted".

Starting from the beginning of 2026, the total remaining carbon budget that gives a 50% likelihood of staying under 1.5 ∘C is only 170 GtCO 2(or 50 GtC). At the projected total anthropogenic emissions rate of 2025, this critical budget will be consumed in approximately four years. The carbon budgets for limiting warming to 1.7 ∘C and 2 ∘C have also been severely diminished, reduced to enough for about 12 and 25 years respectively at current emission levels.

Major Economies Reverse Course

The projected surge in global fossil fuel emissions is fueled by increases in major economies, in some cases reversing positive trends from previous years.

Emissions in the United States are projected to increase by +1.9% in 2025, reversing a long-term downward trend.

The European Union (EU27) is also projected to see an increase of +0.4%, similarly reversing a previous decrease.

India's emissions are projected to increase by +1.4%.

China is expected to see a slight increase of +0.4%.

Only a few major economies are projected to show a decrease, such as Japan with a projected fall of −2.2%.

Earth's Natural Sinks are Straining

While human emissions climb, the planet's natural carbon sinks—the vast ocean and land ecosystems that absorb CO 2—are showing signs of severe strain.

The overall weakening of these combined land and ocean sinks due to climate change is responsible for an estimated 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration since 1960.

The ocean sink's ability to absorb carbon has been "stagnant" since 2016.

On land, the end of the 2023-2024 El Niño weather pattern—which typically causes heat and drought—is expected to allow the land sink to recover entirely in 2025, returning to pre-El Niño levels after a strong reduction in 2024.

A Narrow Path Forward

Despite the devastating global trend, the report highlights that successful decarbonization efforts are possible. The number of countries that managed to reduce their fossil CO 2 emissions while simultaneously growing their economies nearly doubled in the last decade (2015-2024), reaching a total of 35 countries.

However, this progress is being swiftly outpaced by the growth in global energy demand. To meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.7 ∘C (well below 2 ∘C) and reach net-zero by 2050, total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions must be cut by an average of 4% each year starting from 2025. This rate of decline is comparable in magnitude to the massive, globally coordinated reduction in emissions observed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. With the most ambitious 1.5 ∘C target now essentially lost, only an immediate, dramatic, and sustained global decline in emissions can preserve a pathway toward the higher-level climate goals.