A Decade After Paris: From Pledges to the Precipice – COP30 Demands Action in Belém

Wazzup Pilipinas!? 

 

Ten years have passed since the world adopted the Paris Agreement, a landmark moment that set a course for a climate-safe future. As COP30 kicks off in Belém, Brazil, the global climate movement stands at a pivotal crossroads, buoyed by unprecedented progress in clean energy and public will, yet imperiled by the persistent fossil fuel expansion and the catastrophic reality of a warming world. The decisions made in Belém will determine whether the 2030s become a decade of decisive implementation.

The Clean Energy Revolution is Defying Expectations 

Few predicted the scale of the clean energy surge since 2015. What was once a niche industry is now the world’s largest engine of new energy growth.

Investment Tsunami: Annual investment in clean energy reached $2.2 trillion in 2025, double that of fossil fuels.

Dominant Growth: Renewables now supply over 90% of new power capacity.

Cost & Jobs: Solar power costs have plummeted by 80% since 2014, and clean-energy jobs have nearly doubled to 16.2 million, outpacing fossil fuels.

This success story is the bedrock of optimism. Christiana Figueres, a key architect of the Paris Agreement, notes that "The fossil fuel industry knows that the new economy based on clean technologies is cheaper and in almost every market, it is better performing and can be built faster. They know that they can no longer compete... increasingly climate economics [is important]".

The Scars of Delay: Impacts Escalate 

Despite the clean energy boom, the planet is running short on time. The world is already 1.35 ∘C warmer, and the UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report warns that progress is "far too slow".

Deadly Reality: The odds of major heat waves have risen up to ninefold since 2015. Current policies have helped avoid roughly 100 extra hot days a year for about 30 countries, but adaptation finance and coverage lag far behind the rising risk.

The Goal is Slipping: While projected warming with full National Determined Contributions (NDCs) implementation has fallen slightly to 2.3−2.5 ∘C (or 2.8 ∘C under current policies), Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, asserts that a return to "well below 1.5 ∘C" is still possible if the "highest possible ambition is pursued... starting now," which means reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by 2050.

Climate-Centered Policy and the 'Planet Wreckers' 

The Paris Agreement catalyzed a massive policy shift: over 140 countries (representing 90% of global emissions) have adopted net-zero targets. Examples of this 'climate-centered policy' include:

G20 Requirements: 19 G20 members now require emissions disclosure.

National Integration: From Nigeria's 2060 net-zero target to Brazil's "Ecological Transformation Plan" and Indonesia embedding climate targets in regional plans, long-term perspectives are being woven into policymaking.

However, this national progress is undercut by a striking imbalance: four Global North producers—the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Norway—have increased oil and gas output by 40%, accounting for 90% of the world's net rise since 2015. This fossil fuel expansion undermines the credibility of the transition, especially as these Global North nations' oil and gas firms earned $1.3 trillion in profits, while the nations themselves provided $280 billion in grant-based climate finance.

The Call for Real Delivery: Public and Business Consensus 

Crucially, the political momentum is now backed by an overwhelming mandate from both the public and the private sector.

Public Will: 89% of people worldwide want faster climate measures, and citizens across ideologies favor clean energy over fossil fuels by 2:1.

Business Urgency: 97% of executives support transitioning to renewable-based electricity systems. Fiona Duggan of Unilever notes that "Climate breakdown is no longer a distant risk for business, it's already disrupting operations".

This consensus has led hundreds of companies to sign a statement urging governments to translate this agreement into action.

Belém: The Test of Implementation

COP30 in Belém is not just another summit; it is a test of whether governments can match this ambition with concrete action.

Jennifer Morgan, former German state secretary and special envoy for international climate action, emphasizes, "It is one where there's not one big fund or one big outcome. One really needs to be looking at the signals, the decisions, and the proof points, to see how leaders and countries are accelerating the implementation".

Henri Waisman, Director of the DDP Initiative, is clear: "The lesson of the past decade is equally clear: if we are to achieve the goals of Paris, the next decade must be about scaling up efforts, addressing social and industrial challenges, and ensuring that ambition is consistently translated into effective action".

The summit must move beyond pledges by:

Addressing the Ambition Gap: In current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Accelerating Finance: For adaptation.

Accelerating Just Transitions: Away from fossil fuels.

The world has proven that transformation is possible, and now, in the Amazonian city of Belém , the world must send a strong political signal that it is ready to shift from pledges to real delivery.

The 1.5 ∘C Rescue Mission: A Roadmap for Humanity's Greatest Challenge

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A new, comprehensive analysis by Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) reveals a stark truth: humanity's insufficient climate action has locked the world into a period of overshoot of the Paris Agreement's 1.5 ∘C warming limit. However, the report, titled "Rescuing 1.5 ∘C", provides an urgent and dramatically compelling roadmap—the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario—that shows it is still within our power to bring warming back down to a safer climate well below 1.5 ∘C before the end of the century.

The message is clear: the 1.5 ∘C limit is not lost, but the cost of delay is staggering, tripling our cumulative exposure to the risks of climate catastrophe.

The Cost of Delay: Deeper and Longer into the Danger Zone

The failure to aggressively cut emissions from 2020-2025 has had irreversible consequences on the climate trajectory. The HPA scenario updates outdated models from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to reflect today's higher starting emissions.

The Staggering Climate Impact

The report outlines the new, grim reality of the climate path, contrasting it with what could have been achieved five years ago:

Peak Warming: Global warming is now likely to peak at around 1.7 ∘C. This is 0.1 ∘C higher than the median peak in 1.5 ∘C-aligned AR6 scenarios.

Duration of Overshoot: The world is projected to exceed the 1.5 ∘C limit for approximately 40 years. This is at least a decade longer than the ∼30 years projected in the median AR6 scenarios.

Cumulative Exposure: The total "degree-years" of overshoot in the HPA scenario are calculated at 4.3 ∘C-years, more than triple the 1.3 ∘C-years in the median AR6 scenario. This exponentially increases the risk of crossing irreversible climate tipping points and escalating impacts.

The Accelerated Pace of the Transition

To compensate for lost time, the necessary emissions cuts must now be deeper and faster, leading to a more disruptive economic transition and increased asset stranding.

In the crucial decade of the 2030s, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall by two-thirds—an unprecedented annual reduction rate of 11%. This rapid pace also demands much faster retirement of fossil fuel infrastructure, particularly gas-fired power stations.

The Four Key Levers to Achieve Highest Possible Ambition

The HPA scenario presents a transformative roadmap built on four interlocking, non-negotiable levers. A shortfall in any one area would require unfeasible action in another, leading to increased overshoot.

1. Widespread Electrification Powered by Renewables (The Powerhouse)

The energy system must be overhauled, leveraging the recent "revolution in renewables and batteries".

Electrification Dominance: By 2050, more than two-thirds (64%) of the global energy system must be directly powered by renewable electricity.

Renewable Growth: This transition is underpinned by wind, solar, and battery storage. Global renewable capacity must grow 3.5-fold by 2030 relative to 2022 levels, just ahead of the COP28 tripling goal.

Fossil-Free Power: Both coal and gas must be virtually phased out of the power sector by 2040, with wind and solar supplying over 90% of electricity demand by 2050.

2. A Rapid Fossil Fuel Phaseout

The complete and rapid elimination of fossil fuels is paramount to halt warming.

Immediate Peak: Production and consumption of all fossil fuels must peak immediately in 2025 and fall rapidly thereafter.

Timeline: The global phaseout must see:

Coal: Effectively phased out by the 2040s.

Gas: Effectively phased out in the 2050s.

Oil: Effectively phased out in the 2060s.

Total Elimination: A fossil-free global economy, including non-energy use like chemical feedstocks, is achievable by 2070. Crucially, fossil-CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) plays only a marginal, temporary role in this scenario.

3. Faster Action on Methane

As a short-lived but potent greenhouse gas, cutting methane is essential to curb peak temperatures.

Reduction Goals: Methane emissions must fall by about 20% by 2030 and 32% by 2035 (relative to 2020 levels).

Driver: The primary driver of these cuts is the energy sector, with emissions from fossil fuel extraction halved in the 2020s and virtually eliminated by mid-century.

4. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) at a Commercial Scale

While no substitute for the fossil fuel phaseout, large-scale carbon removal is the inevitable, complementary action required to draw temperatures back down after they peak.

Scaling: CDR technologies must scale up rapidly from the 2030s, reaching a combined ∼8 GtCO2

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 /yr by 2050 from Biomass with CCS (BECCS), Direct Air Capture with CCS (DACCS), and Afforestation/Reforestation (A/R).

Resilience: The good news is that the scenario is robust: even if engineered CDR deployment is halved, temperatures would still fall back below 1.5 ∘C by the end of the century.

The Enduring Anchor: 1.5 ∘C Still in Sight

The ultimate outcome of the Highest Possible Ambition scenario is a return to a safe climate. By 2100, global warming is projected to decline to approximately 1.2 ∘C.

As Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, states: "Overshoot of 1.5 ∘C is a woeful political failure... But this roadmap shows it is still within our power to bring warming back well below 1.5 ∘C by 2100".

The Rescuing 1.5 ∘C report is a call to action, not despair. It reaffirms that the 1.5 ∘C warming limit remains the "enduring legal, political and moral anchor" of the international climate process, guiding the highest possible ambition. The world has a choice: to embrace this disruptive transition and deliver a healthier, fairer, and safer future for all, or risk locking in chaos.

The future is in our collective hands.

Cryosphere on the Brink: Global Ice Loss Threatens Billions, But Urgent Action Can Still Avert Catastrophe!

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A new, dramatically urgent assessment from the world's leading cryosphere scientists has unveiled a chilling reality: Global ice loss is dangerously expanding, spelling disaster for billions of people. However, the same report offers a sliver of hope, asserting that the worst impacts can still be avoided if governments course-correct immediately.

The latest research, detailed in the 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report, coordinated by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) , reveals that current unambitious climate commitments—which lead the world to well over 2 ∘C of warming—will result in catastrophic global ice loss. The report stresses that this damage can still be prevented, but barely.

The Scale of the Crisis

The report integrates the alarming finding that glaciers around the world have lost an average of 273 billion metric tons of ice per year between 2000 and 2023, with losses accelerating in recent years. This accelerating melt has been detailed since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015.

Key findings underscore the perilous state of the planet's ice and snow (the cryosphere):

Critical Temperature Thresholds: Latest research notes that thresholds for the stability of polar ice sheets are likely at just 1∘C of warming, and even lower temperatures threaten many glaciers.

Irreversible Changes: Most of these devastating changes will be irreversible for centuries, or even thousands of years.

Near-Total Loss: Regions like the European Alps, Scandinavia, the Rockies of North America, and Iceland would lose at least half their ice at or below a sustained 1 ∘C, and face a loss of all or nearly all ice at 2∘C.

For example, areas such as Scandinavia and western North America are projected to lose all or nearly all ice already at 2 ∘C of warming, though a 1.5 ∘C emissions trajectory could preserve 20% of today’s ice in these regions.

High Mountain Asia at Risk: Even the higher central and eastern parts of High Mountain Asia are projected to lose 60% of existing ice under a 1.5 ∘C emissions scenario, with only 15% remaining at 3.0 ∘C. The Hindu Kush and Karakoram regions stand to lose 40% of ice mass under a 2 ∘C future, but only 15% under a 1.5 ∘C pathway.

Tropical Ice Disappearing: Indonesia’s Puncak Jaya glaciers have already lost more than 99% of their 1850 surface area. New satellite imagery from 2023 and 2024 shows these tropical ice masses have lost as much as 64% of their surface area since the most recent survey in 2018. * Sea Ice Records: Combined Arctic and Antarctica sea ice hit its lowest area ever in February 2025.

Ocean Acidification: This has passed critical thresholds in much of the Arctic and Southern Oceans, reaching non-survivable levels for shelled life in some regions.

Permafrost Emissions: Permafrost is now confirmed as a net source of carbon emissions, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere than these ecosystems absorb.

The Narrow Path to Prevention

The report highlights that the difference between 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C pathways is also the difference in the projected levels of water, food, economic and political insecurity in all those regions.

Slowing sea-level rise to a manageable level requires a long-term temperature goal at, or even below 1 ∘C. Staying even at current warming levels of 1.2 ∘C will likely lead to several meters of sea-level rise over coming centuries, exceeding coastal adaptation limits.

The good news is found in the "Highest Possible Ambition" (HPA) pathways. These show that:

Temperatures can be lowered this century through aggressive emissions cuts and land-based carbon dioxide removal.

This would slow and then halt glacier, snow, and sea ice loss, as well as permafrost thaw.

Glacier and snow loss can slow and begin to stabilize by the 2060s.

This rapid action is the difference between facing 3 meters' sea-level rise early next century (with current emissions) versus that amount in one or two thousand years.

"Preserving the Earth's cryosphere now means reaching 1.5 ∘C by 2100 and lowering temperatures towards 1 ∘C thereafter," says Dr. James Kirkham, Chief Scientist to the Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) high-level group of nations and an author on the Report.

A Call to Action at COP30

The publication of the Report comes as global leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, for the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP30). The site of COP30 itself is vulnerable to climate change impacts.

Dr. Kirkham issued a stern challenge to the policymakers: “Policy makers at COP30 must stop denying this physical reality and finally deliver the deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions need to protect global security from accelerating ice losses".

"The best and worst part of these findings is that none of this damage is necessary," added Pam Pearson, ICCI's Director. "We have all the tools to change, as the new HPA pathways detail. We just need to use them".