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Ten years after the historic Paris Agreement, a new report reveals a stark and alarming truth: governments around the world are collectively planning to produce more fossil fuels than ever before, putting global climate ambitions at increasing risk. The 2025 Production Gap Report uncovers a deepening divide between nations' climate commitments and their actions, highlighting how the world is veering further off track from its goal of limiting global warming.
The report, a collaboration of leading research and academic institutions, profiles 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries that are responsible for about 80% of global fossil fuel production. The findings are a powerful indictment of the world's collective failure to transition away from coal, oil, and gas, and they arrive as countries prepare to submit their third round of national climate commitments (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.
The Production Gap Is Growing, Not Shrinking
The central finding of the report is the widening production gap—the discrepancy between the fossil fuel production planned by governments and the levels required to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature targets. The numbers are staggering:
By 2030, governments' planned production is projected to exceed the levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 ∘C by more than 120%. This represents a significant increase from the 110% gap identified in the 2023 report.
The gap for a 2 ∘C-consistent pathway has also grown, now standing at 77% (up from 69% in 2023).
This near-term increase is largely driven by expanded government plans for coal and gas production. Planned coal production for 2030 is 7% higher than projected in 2023, while planned gas production is 5% higher. Looking further ahead, governments' planned production of oil and gas continues to increase to 2050, while coal production, although projected to decline after 2030, does so too slowly to meet climate goals.
The consequences of this delay are profound. Every year that the world fails to curb fossil fuel production, it becomes harder and more expensive to achieve climate goals. The report warns that the cumulative fossil fuel production over the 2020s is likely to be "substantially higher" than what is consistent with Paris-aligned pathways. This means that even if the world manages to reduce production to appropriate levels by 2030, the total amount of coal, oil, and gas extracted this decade will still be too high.
A Global Bet Against the Clean Energy Transition
The report highlights that most of the profiled countries continue to support fossil fuel production at levels inconsistent with their own net zero ambitions. This is often driven by a mix of political and economic factors, such as concerns over energy security and economic development.
China, the world's largest coal producer, is deploying renewables at an unprecedented rate, but its near-term coal production plans have increased due to industry pressure and grid reliability concerns.
The United States, the largest producer of both oil and gas, has seen a new government reverse domestic climate policies and promote new leasing and drilling for oil and gas.
Russia plans to increase coal production until 2050 and gas production to 2050, largely to serve markets in Asia.
India projects growing domestic coal demand to the mid-2040s and continues to view coal-fired power as crucial for economic development.
Brazil and Nigeria are among several countries planning significant increases in oil and gas production, with governments promoting gas as a "transition fuel" but lacking clear plans to transition away from it.
All countries profiled continue to provide substantial financial and policy support for fossil fuel production, with the fiscal cost of these subsidies remaining near an all-time high. This support, ranging from tax incentives to direct investments in infrastructure, encourages the very activities that undermine global climate goals.
Glimmers of Hope and a Call to Action
Despite the grim findings, the report also points to some positive developments. A few major fossil-fuel-producing countries, though not the majority, have started to align their production plans with national and international climate goals.
Six of the 20 profiled countries are now developing scenarios for domestic fossil fuel production that align with net zero targets, an increase from four in 2023.
Countries like Colombia and Brazil have launched energy transition roadmaps and programs aimed at phasing out fossil fuels and supporting affected communities.
International cooperation remains a focus for many countries, with most donor nations (except for the U.S.) remaining committed to Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs).
The message is clear: achieving climate goals requires "deliberate, coordinated policies to ensure a just transition away from fossil fuels". As governments submit their new NDCs, they must reverse the trend of expanding fossil fuel production and integrate plans for reducing it within their wider energy transition efforts.
In a powerful foreword, Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, describes the report as both "a warning and a guide." She concludes, "Renewables will inevitably crowd out fossil fuels completely, but we need deliberate action now to close the gap on time. What we need now is courage and solidarity to move forward at great speed with the just transition".
Ross is known as the Pambansang Blogger ng Pilipinas - An Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Professional by profession and a Social Media Evangelist by heart.
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