UP Scientists Harness AI to Predict Tropical Cyclone Rainfall, Boosting Disaster Preparedness

Wazzup Pilipinas!?

Every year, the Philippines braces itself for the wrath of tropical cyclones (TCs). These storms bring with them torrential rains, swelling rivers, and landslides that claim lives and devastate communities. For generations, Filipinos have learned to endure—but survival has always depended on preparedness. And preparedness depends on prediction.

Now, scientists from the University of the Philippines Diliman (UPD) College of Science’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (IESM) are offering a powerful new tool: an artificial intelligence-powered model that can forecast how much rainfall a tropical cyclone will bring based on the paths of storms in the past.

Learning From the Storms of the Past

Tropical cyclones tend to follow familiar tracks. Time and again, Central Luzon, Eastern Visayas, and Bicol find themselves in the path of massive storms. “If a typhoon with a certain rainfall amount passed through Central Luzon before, a similar typhoon following the same path is likely to bring comparable rainfall in the future,” explained Cris Gino Mesias, one of the lead researchers.

This insight sparked the development of a model that doesn’t just look at where a typhoon is heading—but also at how previous storms behaved. Together with Dr. Gerry Bagtasa, Mesias designed an AI system that connects the recorded rainfall of past cyclones to their tracks, spotting patterns invisible to the human eye.

Faster, Smarter, and More Accessible

Traditional cyclone rainfall forecasts rely on dynamic models—highly complex, resource-intensive simulations that require supercomputers to run. In contrast, the UP-developed AI model can generate forecasts within minutes on an ordinary laptop.

“When we assessed the AI model, its predictive skill was comparable to a dynamic model we regularly use,” said Dr. Bagtasa. “But more importantly, the AI model showed better performance in forecasting extreme rainfall from tropical cyclones.”

This leap in accessibility and speed could prove transformative for a country like the Philippines, where local government units and disaster managers often have to make life-saving decisions with limited resources and time.

What the Model Considers

The AI model found that two factors matter most:

The cyclone’s distance from a location – For example, a typhoon near Batanes will not cause heavy rains in Mindanao.

The cyclone’s duration over land – Slow-moving storms that linger tend to bring heavier, more destructive rainfall.

By analyzing these key parameters, the model helps pinpoint which communities are most at risk and how severe the rainfall could be.

Not Perfect, But Promising

The scientists are the first to admit that their model is not flawless. “This AI model, admittedly, is not perfect. But it can add to the suite of rainfall forecast models available to equip our disaster managers with more information on impending hazards,” Dr. Bagtasa stressed.

What makes this system remarkable is its ability to adapt and relearn. As more cyclone data becomes available, the AI can be retrained, continually sharpening its accuracy.

AI for Good—And Its Environmental Trade-Offs

Dr. Bagtasa also underscored an important distinction: not all AI systems are the same. While large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and Gemini are powerful tools for language processing, they consume enormous energy, contributing to environmental strain. In contrast, specialized AI models—such as the one his team developed—offer efficient, sustainable solutions for real-world problems like disaster resilience.

“AI literacy is essential,” he warned. “We need to understand which AI models genuinely help society and which ones carry hidden environmental costs.”

A Milestone for Science and Preparedness

The study, titled “AI-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Forecasting in the Philippines Using Machine Learning,” was recently published in Meteorological Applications. It was supported by the Department of Science and Technology–Accelerated Science and Technology Human Resource Development Program (DOST-ASTHRDP) and the DOST-Philippine Council for Industry, Energy, and Emerging Technology Research and Development (DOST-PCIEERD).

For a nation battered by an average of 20 tropical cyclones each year, this breakthrough could mark a turning point. With science and innovation working hand-in-hand, the hope is that fewer lives will be lost, fewer communities will be displaced, and fewer families will have to rebuild from ruin after every storm.

The storms will keep coming. But with tools like this AI model, Filipinos may finally stand a better chance at predicting their fury—and surviving it.

The Urgent Call for Climate Action: How Energy Efficiency Can Avert a 3°C World

Wazzup Pilipinas!?

The global climate crisis is no longer a distant threat; it's a present reality. The presentation at the Energy Smart Forum 2025 highlights about this urgent issue and the crucial role of energy efficiency in combating it. The message is clear: our current path will lead to a dangerously warmer world, but we have the tools to change course.

The Looming Threat: A 3°C World

Without a dramatic shift in our energy consumption and emissions, we are on track for a temperature increase of 2.6°C to 3.1°C over the century. A hotter world isn't just about rising temperatures; it's a cascade of catastrophic consequences. The presentation slides vividly illustrate this:

Submerged Coastal Cities: Rising sea levels will swallow coastal communities, displacing millions of people and causing irreversible economic and environmental damage. * Extreme Weather: We can expect more frequent and intense storms, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires, devastating ecosystems and human settlements.

Food Shortages: Erratic weather patterns will disrupt agriculture, leading to widespread crop failures and global food insecurity.

The 2024 UNEP Emissions Gap Report warns that current commitments are woefully inadequate. The gap between what we've promised and what's needed to limit warming to 1.5°C or even 2.0°C is widening, not shrinking.

The Solution: Net Zero and Energy Efficiency

We are highlighting two critical concepts for reversing this trend: Net Zero and Energy Efficiency.

Net Zero is the goal of balancing the amount of greenhouse gas emitted with the amount that is either absorbed or offset. It means that for every ton of greenhouse gas we release, an equivalent amount is removed from the atmosphere.

Energy Efficiency is a fundamental component of achieving net zero. It's not about cutting back on our quality of life or making sacrifices. Instead, it's a smarter approach to using energy—getting the same results with less energy input. By improving how we use energy, we can significantly reduce our demand and, consequently, our emissions.

The presentation points out that energy efficiency is a "critical component of Net Zero," citing the International Energy Agency (IEA). A dramatic decrease in global energy demand by 2050 is a key factor in their Net Zero Emissions Scenario. This reduction is largely driven by improved energy efficiency.

The Path Forward for the Philippines

The presentation also focuses on the local impact, outlining the significant economic and developmental benefits for the Philippines from a massive reduction in energy consumption by 2040. These benefits include:

Economic Impact: The potential to save over USD 720 billion in end-use energy, reduce fossil fuel imports by USD 1.5 trillion, and create over 500,000 new jobs.

Energy Security: Increased energy independence and stability, reducing the country's vulnerability to global fuel price shocks.

Climate Change Mitigation: A substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, helping the Philippines fulfill its climate commitments and build resilience to climate change.

The images shown on the speaker's slides introduce the concept of an ESCO, or Energy Service Company, as a crucial part of this solution. In the Philippines, an ESCO is a "juridical entity that offers performance-driven and technology-driven energy efficiency projects." They are key players in financing and implementing energy-saving projects, often using the energy savings themselves to cover the project costs.

By embracing these strategies, we can avoid the dire predictions of a 3°C world and build a more sustainable, prosperous, and secure future. The choice is ours, and the time for action is now.

A New Dawn for Philippine Tennis: The Unstoppable Rise of Alex Eala

Wazzup Pilipinas!?

A young girl from Quezon City, armed with nothing but a racquet and an unwavering spirit, has done what no Filipino before her has: she has made the world believe that tennis belongs to the Philippines. Alex Eala, mentored under the tutelage of tennis titan Rafa Nadal, has not just played the game—she has redefined it for an entire nation. Her journey from junior prodigy to a global champion is a powerful story of raw grit, unyielding discipline, and a vision that has shattered expectations and carved a legacy that will inspire generations.

Born to Compete

From an early age, it was clear that sports were not just a hobby for Alex Eala; they were the language of her family. Her mother, a SEA Games medalist in swimming, instilled in her a champion’s mentality. Her father provided the discipline, and her brother, also a tennis player, shared her passion. This familial foundation of competitive spirit laid the groundwork for a life dedicated to excellence. At just four years old, Alex picked up her first racquet, a toy that would soon become her most powerful weapon. By the age of 14, she was no longer just a local talent; she was competing in international junior tournaments, carrying not only her own nerves but the pride of her country.

Leaving Home to Train with a Legend

The true turning point in her career came at the age of 12 when she made the courageous decision to leave her family and home in the Philippines to join the prestigious Rafa Nadal Academy in Spain. Training alongside Europe’s elite, she learned to fight on her own, far from the comfort of family life. This environment molded her into the resilient and determined athlete she is today. Her relationship with Rafael Nadal himself, a true master of discipline and mental fortitude, became a guiding light, shaping her approach to the game.

A First Taste of History

Her early promise was a preview of the greatness to come. By 2018, she was already a champion, winning the Les Petits As junior tournament in France. At 15, she ascended to the rank of ITF World Junior No. 2. But the real headline-making moment came at 17, when she shocked the tennis world by winning the US Open junior singles. No Filipino had ever done it before. It was a historic victory that put a sport long ignored in Manila on the international news stage.

Her Wimbledon debut was equally symbolic and fearless. Taking to the hallowed Centre Court, she wore a sampaguita hair tie, a subtle nod to her Filipino roots. Though she ultimately lost the match to defending champion Barbora Krejčíková, her spirited performance became one of Wimbledon’s most compelling stories.

Rising Through Elite Tournaments

Alex’s transition to the professional circuit has been nothing short of spectacular. At the Miami Open, she stormed past multiple Grand Slam winners, including Iga Swiatek, on her way to the semifinals. In Eastbourne, she became the first Filipina to reach a WTA singles final, saving championship points in a thrilling three-set match.

Her career is defined by big-match nerves and even bigger comebacks. A prime example is her 2025 US Open match against world no. 14 Clara Tauson. Down 1-5 in the third set, Alex clawed her way back to victory, a feat that had nearly 8,000 fans roaring as a Filipina made Grand Slam history.

Rankings and Records

The numbers tell a story of consistent, relentless progress. From being ranked 529 in 2021, she has broken into the world’s Top 100 by 2025. She now holds the record as the highest-ranked Filipina in history, boasting an impressive 59% pro win rate as she continues to climb.

Alex Eala's journey is more than just a series of wins; it’s a blueprint for defiance, discipline, and vision. She has not only turned her raw grit into global wins but has also instilled in her countrymen a powerful belief: that with hard work and determination, Filipino athletes can and will conquer the world stage. Could this be the future of Filipino athletics? Her story suggests a resounding "yes."