Brazil's Climate Conundrum: Historic Drop in Emissions Masks a Deepening Crisis

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Brazil has achieved a monumental, yet precarious, climate victory: its gross greenhouse gas emissions plummeted by an astonishing 16.7% in 2024, the largest single drop in 16 years and the second largest reduction since measurements began in 1990. This dramatic decline, highlighted in the 13th edition of the SEEG (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates System) from the Observatório do Clima, is a direct result of renewed deforestation control efforts.

However, the celebratory headline is quickly eclipsed by a sobering reality: despite this historic achievement, Brazil is still projected to fall short of its 2025 climate target under the Paris Agreement. Mitigation efforts are currently "shouldered by deforestation control" alone, while emissions from nearly every other sector—agriculture, energy, industrial processes, and waste—continue their alarming rise, threatening to undermine all progress.

The Deforestation Triumph and the Largest Drop in History

The key to the 2024 success lies in the drastic reduction of emissions from Land-Use Change and Forests, primarily driven by a decline in deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado. This decline was spurred by enforcement actions from Ibama (the federal environmental agency).

Gross Emissions Decline: Emissions from this sector saw the largest reduction ever recorded: 32.5%. Gross emissions fell from 1.341 GtCO 2​e to 906 MtCO 2e.

Net Emissions Plunge: Net emissions from land-use change—calculated after discounting carbon removals by secondary forests and protected areas —fell even more dramatically by 64%, the largest reduction in history.

This massive drop propelled Brazil's gross emissions from 2.576 GtCO 2e in 2023 to 2.145 GtCO2

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 e in 2024. As a result, the Land-Use Change sector ceased to be Brazil's main source of net emissions, falling from 35% to 17% of the total.

The Hidden Climate Threat: Sectoral Rises and the Fire-Drought Decoupling

While the government celebrates success in the forests, the rest of the economy tells a different, bleaker story.

Sectoral Emissions Are Rising

In all other sectors of the economy, emissions either remained stable or increased.

The nearly stable agriculture sector rose from 33% to 42% of total net emissions, becoming the single largest source in 2024. Cattle ranching remains the most polluting economic activity, accounting for 51% of total emissions, primarily through methane released from enteric fermentation (the "cow burp").

Fire, Drought, and Climate Change Interference

In a startling finding, the SEEG team observed that emissions from deforestation fell sharply in the same year that Brazil recorded the largest burned area in its history due to severe drought.

For the first time, non-inventoried emissions from fires not associated with deforestation (241 MtCO 2e) were virtually equivalent to all net emissions from land-use change (249 MtCO2e).

If these fires were officially accounted for, they would double Brazil's net deforestation emissions in 2024.

Researchers noted a "decoupling between these two processes that normally go hand in hand—fire and deforestation". This suggests that climate change may already be dangerously interfering with forests , threatening that "even with zero deforestation, Brazil could still lose a significant portion of the Amazon".

Off-Track from the NDC Target

The combined effect of a single sector's success (Land-Use) and widespread failures in all others leaves Brazil dangerously off-track from its climate commitments.

2025 NDC Target: Brazil aims to limit net emissions to 1.32 billion tons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO 2e).

2025 Projection: Based on current trends, Brazil is expected to end 2025 with 1.44 GtCO 2e in net emissions, 9% above its target.

"Deforestation is falling, but all the other sectors are rising," said David Tsai, SEEG Coordinator. He warned that the capacity of deforestation control to deliver emission cuts is "reaching its ceiling" and urged that reductions are also critically needed in the energy and agricultural sectors to meet the 2030 goal.

Government Roadblocks Threaten Future Progress

Paradoxically, the Observatório do Clima points to government-supported infrastructure and energy projects that could undermine the hard-won climate progress.

Highway and Rail Projects: The paving of the BR-319 highway and the construction of the Ferrogrão railway pose significant threats by pressuring forests and potentially encouraging deforestation and soybean expansion in the Amazon.

Fossil Fuel Expansion: Brazil is undermining the Paris Agreement by planning a major expansion in oil production, symbolized by the authorization to drill at the mouth of the Amazon River.

The expansion of the fossil fuel industry is deemed incompatible with keeping global warming below 1.5 ∘C by the IEA and UNEP.

Furthermore, Brazil's record crude oil exports result in "invisible" emissions—carbon released when the oil is burned elsewhere—which still contribute to climate impacts like extreme forest fires.

"We find ourselves with a government that gives with one hand and takes with the other," said Claudio Angelo, head of International Policy at the Climate Observatory. "Climate policy isn't a buffet where you can pick and choose. If it isn't comprehensive, the atmosphere will let us know—and in the worst possible way, as we saw in 2024".

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