Wazzup Pilipinas!?
Manila, Philippines – A new, bombshell study has decisively dismantled the tobacco industry's long-standing narrative that high excise taxes are the primary driver of illicit cigarette trade in the Philippines. Instead, the research points a damning finger at weak enforcement and gaping governance holes, particularly in Southern Mindanao, as the true culprits.
The comprehensive nationwide study, conducted by the Action for Economic Reforms (AER) in partnership with Economics for Health of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, is based on a rigorous audit of over 7,500 cigarette packs collected from more than 1,000 sari-sari stores across eight key cities.
The findings present a stark, regional picture: illicit trade is rampant in some areas while being low and manageable in most others—a variation that cannot be explained by the nation's uniform tax rates.
The Mindanao Outlier: Where Smuggling Thrives
The study identified Zamboanga City and General Santos City in Southern Mindanao as the undeniable hotspots of illicit tobacco trade, effectively skewing the national average and distorting the overall picture.
The numbers are alarming:
Zamboanga City: Nearly 80% of audited packs were sold at prices below the combined applicable taxes (Php 71.42), a definitive indicator of tax evasion. Up to 96% of inspected packs had fake or missing tax stamps, the highest prevalence recorded.
General Santos City: Reported similar, though less extreme, figures, with 38.5% of packs priced below applicable taxes and 85.4% showing tax stamp violations.
This extreme disparity between Mindanao and the rest of the country strongly suggests that the issue is not tax policy, but rather the lack of credible and consistent enforcement. The region's historical open borders, cultural factors, and the involvement of local and national officials in the lucrative trade further compound the problem, creating an "unbroken line" for smugglers.
In contrast, illicit cigarette sales in Luzon, Visayas, and Metro Manila were found to be low. For example, in Batangas, Dagupan, Navotas, Pasay, Quezon City, and Mega Cebu, illicit trade was deemed at "manageable levels".
Three Faces of Illicit Trade
The study identified three primary forms of illicit tobacco trade observed across the Philippines:
Pricing Below Applicable Taxes (Tax Evasion): The sale of cigarettes below the sum of excise and value-added taxes (Php 71.42), which constitutes outright tax evasion. This was overwhelmingly concentrated in Zamboanga and General Santos.
Tax Stamp Violations: Cigarette packs bearing counterfeit or missing tax stamps. The high share of packs without tax stamps in Mindanao was driven by both unregistered brands and specific registered brands (Cannon Menthol 100s and Fort Menthol 100s).
Smuggling of Unregistered Brands: The circulation of brands and variants not declared to the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) by any registered manufacturer or importer. Unregistered brands of foreign origin were found in Batangas and Mega Cebu, but were most prevalent in General Santos (58.6%) and Zamboanga (47.5%).
AER's Urgency: Reject Tax Rollbacks
The AER vehemently urged the government to reject proposals to lower tobacco excise taxes, such as House Bill 11360, warning that such a move would reward smugglers, worsen smoking rates, and erode crucial public revenue.
"The results disprove the tobacco industry's narrative that high taxes cause smuggling," said Daffodil Santillan, AER lead researcher. "The evidence shows the real issue is weak law enforcement and regulatory oversight, especially at ports and borders. Lowering tobacco taxes will only make cigarettes cheaper and Filipinos sicker".
Since 2012, tobacco tax reforms have been hailed as a public health achievement, funding the Universal Health Care (UHC) Law and reducing adult smoking prevalence from 29.7% in 2009 to 19.5% in 2021. A tax rollback would risk reversing a decade of health and fiscal progress.
Policy Recommendations for Stronger Enforcement
To effectively combat illicit trade and secure the gains of tobacco tax reform, AER calls for a multi-pronged approach focused on strengthening enforcement and governance:
Upgrade to an Independent Track-and-Trace System: Replace the current tax stamp with a comprehensive, user-friendly system featuring both physical and digital markers, operating independent of the tobacco industry.
Empower the BIR: Expand the Bureau of Internal Revenue's (BIR) authority to suspend or close businesses for tax violations on all excisable products.
Retailer Accountability: Implement a nationwide licensing system requiring all tobacco retailers, including sari-sari stores, to obtain permits to ensure compliance and accountability.
Tighten Coordination: Strengthen coordination among Customs, BIR, local government units (LGUs), and national enforcement agencies, and deputize local police to conduct raids in enforcement hotspots.
Global Cooperation: Strengthen regional cooperation with neighboring countries to stem illicit trade at its source.
The AER report sends a clear message to policymakers: the fight against illicit tobacco trade is fundamentally a fight for better governance and stronger rule of law.
Ross is known as the Pambansang Blogger ng Pilipinas - An Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Professional by profession and a Social Media Evangelist by heart.
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