Miguel Chanco, Lead Analyst, ASEAN, at the EIU based in Singapore, has provided some insight and predictions on the upcoming presidential elections in the Philippines on Monday, 9 May.
"On Monday 9th May, the Philippines heads to the polls to elect a new President.
Unfortunately, this election looks set to put a dent in the Philippines’ recent positive economic performance, whatever the result. None of the front-runners are likely to secure a mandate as strong as Benigno Aquino’s, current and 15th President of the Philippines. Long the “sick man of Asia”, the Philippines has made slow and steady improvements in infrastructure, regulatory environment and in reducing corruption, that has led to a steady uptick in most economic indicators. Most notable is the boom in investment, which has increased by over 10% in three of the last four years.
In an echo of Donald Trump in the US, a divisive and controversial candidate, Rodrigo Duterte has had a storming campaign and now has a real chance of winning. However, the campaign of the other possible winner, Grace Poe, has been marred by questions of eligibility and her victory could be challenged in court by the runner-up. While a messy transition in government is a given, things will look very different depending on who wins. The country's fundamentals are such that the EIU believe that the Philippines will rise from being the world's 33rd biggest economy today, to 21st by 2030 - just behind the Netherlands - but the ride will be a bit rockier.”