Wazzup Pilipinas!?
The narrative claiming wind and solar drive up electricity costs crumbles when confronted with global market data
Picture this: A state powered more than half by wind turbines and solar panels, where electricity prices sit comfortably below the national average. Sound impossible? It's not only possible—it's reality in Iowa, South Dakota, and New Mexico. Yet somehow, the myth persists that renewable energy is an expensive luxury we can't afford.
The debate over renewable energy costs has become one of the most politically charged questions of our time. In September 2025, President Donald Trump stood before the United Nations and declared wind "the most expensive energy ever conceived." In the UK, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch blamed renewables for "driving up the cost of energy." Think tanks warn ominously of needing "parallel systems" to back up unreliable wind and solar, painting a picture of an unaffordable energy future.
There's just one problem with this narrative: the data tells a completely different story.
When Reality Contradicts the Rhetoric
Across multiple continents and diverse energy markets, a clear pattern emerges that challenges everything critics claim about renewable energy costs. From the plains of Oklahoma to the innovative grids of Denmark, regions embracing wind and solar aren't experiencing the price catastrophes predicted by opponents. Instead, they're often enjoying electricity costs below their regional averages.
The numbers are striking. In 2024, nine out of ten new grid-scale renewable projects generated electricity cheaper than the most affordable new fossil fuel alternative, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. Onshore wind farms now produce power at an average cost of just 3.4 cents per kilowatt-hour—a full 53% cheaper than the most competitive fossil fuel options. Solar photovoltaic systems aren't far behind at 4.3 cents per kilowatt-hour.
But critics argue these figures don't tell the whole story. What about backup systems? What about the grid upgrades? What about reliability?
The answer, it turns out, lies in examining what's actually happening in electricity markets around the world.
The American Experiment
In the United States, the relationship between renewable energy adoption and electricity prices reveals a pattern that should make policymakers take notice. Of the ten states with the lowest residential electricity rates, seven have above-average wind and solar integration. Oklahoma, a wind energy powerhouse, combines aggressive renewable deployment with some of the nation's cheapest electricity.
The three states where variable renewables exceeded 50% of generation in early 2025—Iowa, South Dakota, and New Mexico—all maintain below-average household power prices. This isn't cherry-picking data; it's a consistent trend across most high-renewable states.
California and Hawaii stand as apparent exceptions, with high renewable shares and high prices. But dig deeper, and the narrative shifts. Hawaii's elevated costs stem largely from its continued reliance on expensive imported petroleum for power generation—a fossil fuel problem, not a renewable one. California's high prices trace back to escalating wildfire-related costs that utilities pass to consumers, alongside aging infrastructure challenges.
Here's what critics miss: even in these outlier states, the renewable energy transition is moderating price growth, not accelerating it. While the national average household price climbed 4.9% year-over-year in early 2025, California's prices remained flat despite wind and solar gaining 5.8 percentage points of market share—the largest increase of any state. Hawaii saw residential prices actually decline by 6.6% as renewables continued expanding.
Research from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reveals that inflation-adjusted power generation costs in the US actually decreased between 2019 and 2024. The culprit behind rising bills? Investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure, supply chain constraints, and climate-related disasters—not renewable energy deployment.
Europe's Price Revolution
The European Union presents an even more compelling case. Most EU countries with above-average wind and solar penetration enjoy below-average household electricity prices. Denmark, which leads the world in variable renewable adoption, maintains competitive rates despite its pioneering status.
The mechanism driving this phenomenon is elegant in its simplicity. In European electricity markets, the most expensive generator operating at any given time sets the wholesale price. Historically, that's been fossil gas, which set day-ahead prices roughly 60% of the time in 2022 despite generating only 20% of the region's electricity. As cheaper renewables capture a larger share of generation, expensive fossil fuels set prices less frequently because they're simply needed less often.
Spain offers a textbook example of this dynamic in action. Wind and solar comprised 44% of Spain's electricity generation in the first half of 2025, well above the EU average of 31.4%. The result? Fossil fuels set Spanish electricity prices just 19% of the time, down dramatically from 75% in 2019. Spain's wholesale electricity price came in 32% lower than the EU average, and pre-tax household rates ran 13.1% below the continental benchmark.
The International Energy Agency estimates that EU consumers saved approximately €100 billion between 2021 and 2023 as new solar and wind replaced expensive fossil fuel generation. Remarkably, the agency suggests these savings could have been 15% higher with more aggressive renewable deployment.
Looking forward, the IEA's modeling shows Europe's shift from gas and other fossil fuels will lead to a slight decrease in household electricity bills by 2035. The UK's National Energy System Operator projects even more dramatic results: the country's total annual energy spending could fall from around 10% of GDP in 2025 to roughly 5% by 2050 under a high renewable pathway.
The Developing World Takes Notice
In India, where coal still accounts for nearly three-quarters of power generation, the renewable revolution is just beginning. The relationship between renewables and prices remains less clear in this emerging market, though early indicators suggest familiar patterns developing.
Rajasthan, where renewable deployment is more mature, sees distribution utilities paying below the national median for electricity. A peer-reviewed study in Energy Policy found that rising renewable integration in Madhya Pradesh could lower utility power purchase costs by up to 11%, with savings growing as demand increases and renewable costs continue falling.
The Australian Paradox
Australia presents perhaps the most complex case study. South Australia, the nation's renewable energy leader with wind and solar providing 76% of power output, paradoxically shows the highest wholesale prices. Yet this apparent contradiction reveals more about market structure than renewable energy costs.
South Australia's pricing challenges predate its energy transition by years. A 2022 state productivity commission report identified the core issue: an illiquid and highly concentrated market for on-demand electricity that makes hedging expensive. These structural problems existed long before wind turbines and solar panels proliferated—renewable integration rates stood at just 34% as recently as 2014.
More tellingly, daily energy statistics reveal that when wind and solar's share of South Australia's electricity mix rises, prices tend to fall. When renewables exceed 85% of the mix, wholesale prices sometimes drop into negative territory for the entire day. The Australian Energy Market Commission expects national residential electricity prices to decrease by around 5% by 2030 as the rest of the country catches up with South Australia's renewable deployment—but warns prices could climb if the build-out slows.
Breaking the Fossil Fuel-Price Link
What emerges from this global survey is evidence of a fundamental shift in electricity markets. Renewable energy isn't just competing with fossil fuels—it's breaking the historic relationship between fossil fuel costs and electricity prices.
For decades, electricity prices moved in lockstep with fossil fuel costs. When gas prices spiked, electricity bills followed. When coal became cheaper, consumers saw relief. Renewable energy is severing this connection, creating a new paradigm where regions with high renewable penetration become increasingly insulated from fossil fuel price volatility.
This insulation proved its value during recent global energy crises. The IEA's analysis suggests EU consumers would have paid €115 billion more between 2021 and 2023 without the renewable capacity already deployed—a windfall that arrived precisely when fossil fuel prices spiraled upward.
The Cost of Delay
Perhaps the most important finding in the data isn't what's happening in high-renewable regions—it's what's projected for regions that delay their transitions. The Australian Energy Market Commission warns that prices could climb if renewable build-out slows. The IEA suggests European consumers missed out on 15% more savings by not deploying renewables faster. These aren't hypothetical scenarios; they're quantified opportunity costs.
The economics driving this aren't standing still. Wind, solar, and battery storage costs continue declining rapidly. Every year of delayed deployment is a year of locking in higher-cost fossil fuel generation, a year of missing potential savings, a year of increased exposure to fuel price volatility.
The Myth Meets the Market
Electricity pricing is admittedly complex, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, location-specific fuel costs, taxes, market rules, emissions regulations, import dependency, investment timing, and transmission costs. No single factor explains everything.
But the claim that renewables systematically drive up electricity prices? The global data simply doesn't support it. Region after region with above-average renewable deployment shows below-average prices. Market after market demonstrates that increasing wind and solar penetration correlates with stable or declining costs, not the price explosions critics predict.
The myth persists in part because it's intuitive—if something needs backup, surely that makes it more expensive? Yet this logic ignores the fundamental economics. Yes, integrating high levels of variable generation requires grid flexibility. But that flexibility increasingly comes from battery storage that's plummeting in cost, demand response programs, and grid interconnections—not expensive duplicate fossil fuel plants running on standby.
More importantly, the backup argument ignores what's actually happening: cheaper renewable generation is displacing more expensive fossil fuel generation in market after market. The net effect isn't higher costs—it's lower ones.
A Path Forward
With renewable energy costs continuing their remarkable decline, nations face a clear choice. They can embrace this transition with appropriate policy frameworks, building more resilient and affordable electricity systems. Or they can cling to outdated narratives about renewable costs, passing up opportunities to shield consumers from fossil fuel price volatility while missing emissions reduction targets.
The myth that renewables push up power prices has proven remarkably durable, surviving despite mounting evidence to the contrary. It persists in political speeches, think tank reports, and energy debates worldwide. But myths, however persistent, eventually crumble when confronted with reality.
That reality is visible in Iowa's wind farms and low electricity rates, in Spain's declining wholesale prices as solar expands, in Oklahoma's combination of renewable leadership and cheap power. It's quantified in peer-reviewed studies, energy agency reports, and market data across continents.
The great energy myth isn't about what renewable energy costs—it's about the cost of believing that myth in the first place. Every year we delay the transition based on discredited price concerns is a year of higher electricity bills, greater price volatility, and missed opportunities to build the affordable, resilient energy system the data shows is possible.
The numbers don't lie. The question is whether we'll listen to them.
Ross is known as the Pambansang Blogger ng Pilipinas - An Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Professional by profession and a Social Media Evangelist by heart.
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