Wazzup Pilipinas!?
A new, comprehensive analysis by Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) reveals a stark truth: humanity's insufficient climate action has locked the world into a period of overshoot of the Paris Agreement's 1.5 ∘C warming limit. However, the report, titled "Rescuing 1.5 ∘C", provides an urgent and dramatically compelling roadmap—the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario—that shows it is still within our power to bring warming back down to a safer climate well below 1.5 ∘C before the end of the century.
The message is clear: the 1.5 ∘C limit is not lost, but the cost of delay is staggering, tripling our cumulative exposure to the risks of climate catastrophe.
The Cost of Delay: Deeper and Longer into the Danger Zone
The failure to aggressively cut emissions from 2020-2025 has had irreversible consequences on the climate trajectory. The HPA scenario updates outdated models from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to reflect today's higher starting emissions.
The Staggering Climate Impact
The report outlines the new, grim reality of the climate path, contrasting it with what could have been achieved five years ago:
Peak Warming: Global warming is now likely to peak at around 1.7 ∘C. This is 0.1 ∘C higher than the median peak in 1.5 ∘C-aligned AR6 scenarios.
Duration of Overshoot: The world is projected to exceed the 1.5 ∘C limit for approximately 40 years. This is at least a decade longer than the ∼30 years projected in the median AR6 scenarios.
Cumulative Exposure: The total "degree-years" of overshoot in the HPA scenario are calculated at 4.3 ∘C-years, more than triple the 1.3 ∘C-years in the median AR6 scenario. This exponentially increases the risk of crossing irreversible climate tipping points and escalating impacts.
The Accelerated Pace of the Transition
To compensate for lost time, the necessary emissions cuts must now be deeper and faster, leading to a more disruptive economic transition and increased asset stranding.
In the crucial decade of the 2030s, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall by two-thirds—an unprecedented annual reduction rate of 11%. This rapid pace also demands much faster retirement of fossil fuel infrastructure, particularly gas-fired power stations.
The Four Key Levers to Achieve Highest Possible Ambition
The HPA scenario presents a transformative roadmap built on four interlocking, non-negotiable levers. A shortfall in any one area would require unfeasible action in another, leading to increased overshoot.
1. Widespread Electrification Powered by Renewables (The Powerhouse)
The energy system must be overhauled, leveraging the recent "revolution in renewables and batteries".
Electrification Dominance: By 2050, more than two-thirds (64%) of the global energy system must be directly powered by renewable electricity.
Renewable Growth: This transition is underpinned by wind, solar, and battery storage. Global renewable capacity must grow 3.5-fold by 2030 relative to 2022 levels, just ahead of the COP28 tripling goal.
Fossil-Free Power: Both coal and gas must be virtually phased out of the power sector by 2040, with wind and solar supplying over 90% of electricity demand by 2050.
2. A Rapid Fossil Fuel Phaseout
The complete and rapid elimination of fossil fuels is paramount to halt warming.
Immediate Peak: Production and consumption of all fossil fuels must peak immediately in 2025 and fall rapidly thereafter.
Timeline: The global phaseout must see:
Coal: Effectively phased out by the 2040s.
Gas: Effectively phased out in the 2050s.
Oil: Effectively phased out in the 2060s.
Total Elimination: A fossil-free global economy, including non-energy use like chemical feedstocks, is achievable by 2070. Crucially, fossil-CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) plays only a marginal, temporary role in this scenario.
3. Faster Action on Methane
As a short-lived but potent greenhouse gas, cutting methane is essential to curb peak temperatures.
Reduction Goals: Methane emissions must fall by about 20% by 2030 and 32% by 2035 (relative to 2020 levels).
Driver: The primary driver of these cuts is the energy sector, with emissions from fossil fuel extraction halved in the 2020s and virtually eliminated by mid-century.
4. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) at a Commercial Scale
While no substitute for the fossil fuel phaseout, large-scale carbon removal is the inevitable, complementary action required to draw temperatures back down after they peak.
Scaling: CDR technologies must scale up rapidly from the 2030s, reaching a combined ∼8 GtCO2
/yr by 2050 from Biomass with CCS (BECCS), Direct Air Capture with CCS (DACCS), and Afforestation/Reforestation (A/R).
Resilience: The good news is that the scenario is robust: even if engineered CDR deployment is halved, temperatures would still fall back below 1.5 ∘C by the end of the century.
The Enduring Anchor: 1.5 ∘C Still in Sight
The ultimate outcome of the Highest Possible Ambition scenario is a return to a safe climate. By 2100, global warming is projected to decline to approximately 1.2 ∘C.
As Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, states: "Overshoot of 1.5 ∘C is a woeful political failure... But this roadmap shows it is still within our power to bring warming back well below 1.5 ∘C by 2100".
The Rescuing 1.5 ∘C report is a call to action, not despair. It reaffirms that the 1.5 ∘C warming limit remains the "enduring legal, political and moral anchor" of the international climate process, guiding the highest possible ambition. The world has a choice: to embrace this disruptive transition and deliver a healthier, fairer, and safer future for all, or risk locking in chaos.
The future is in our collective hands.
Ross is known as the Pambansang Blogger ng Pilipinas - An Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Professional by profession and a Social Media Evangelist by heart.
.jpg)
Post a Comment