Cryosphere on the Brink: Global Ice Loss Threatens Billions, But Urgent Action Can Still Avert Catastrophe!

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A new, dramatically urgent assessment from the world's leading cryosphere scientists has unveiled a chilling reality: Global ice loss is dangerously expanding, spelling disaster for billions of people. However, the same report offers a sliver of hope, asserting that the worst impacts can still be avoided if governments course-correct immediately.

The latest research, detailed in the 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report, coordinated by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) , reveals that current unambitious climate commitments—which lead the world to well over 2 ∘C of warming—will result in catastrophic global ice loss. The report stresses that this damage can still be prevented, but barely.

The Scale of the Crisis

The report integrates the alarming finding that glaciers around the world have lost an average of 273 billion metric tons of ice per year between 2000 and 2023, with losses accelerating in recent years. This accelerating melt has been detailed since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015.

Key findings underscore the perilous state of the planet's ice and snow (the cryosphere):

Critical Temperature Thresholds: Latest research notes that thresholds for the stability of polar ice sheets are likely at just 1∘C of warming, and even lower temperatures threaten many glaciers.

Irreversible Changes: Most of these devastating changes will be irreversible for centuries, or even thousands of years.

Near-Total Loss: Regions like the European Alps, Scandinavia, the Rockies of North America, and Iceland would lose at least half their ice at or below a sustained 1 ∘C, and face a loss of all or nearly all ice at 2∘C.

For example, areas such as Scandinavia and western North America are projected to lose all or nearly all ice already at 2 ∘C of warming, though a 1.5 ∘C emissions trajectory could preserve 20% of today’s ice in these regions.

High Mountain Asia at Risk: Even the higher central and eastern parts of High Mountain Asia are projected to lose 60% of existing ice under a 1.5 ∘C emissions scenario, with only 15% remaining at 3.0 ∘C. The Hindu Kush and Karakoram regions stand to lose 40% of ice mass under a 2 ∘C future, but only 15% under a 1.5 ∘C pathway.

Tropical Ice Disappearing: Indonesia’s Puncak Jaya glaciers have already lost more than 99% of their 1850 surface area. New satellite imagery from 2023 and 2024 shows these tropical ice masses have lost as much as 64% of their surface area since the most recent survey in 2018. * Sea Ice Records: Combined Arctic and Antarctica sea ice hit its lowest area ever in February 2025.

Ocean Acidification: This has passed critical thresholds in much of the Arctic and Southern Oceans, reaching non-survivable levels for shelled life in some regions.

Permafrost Emissions: Permafrost is now confirmed as a net source of carbon emissions, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere than these ecosystems absorb.

The Narrow Path to Prevention

The report highlights that the difference between 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C pathways is also the difference in the projected levels of water, food, economic and political insecurity in all those regions.

Slowing sea-level rise to a manageable level requires a long-term temperature goal at, or even below 1 ∘C. Staying even at current warming levels of 1.2 ∘C will likely lead to several meters of sea-level rise over coming centuries, exceeding coastal adaptation limits.

The good news is found in the "Highest Possible Ambition" (HPA) pathways. These show that:

Temperatures can be lowered this century through aggressive emissions cuts and land-based carbon dioxide removal.

This would slow and then halt glacier, snow, and sea ice loss, as well as permafrost thaw.

Glacier and snow loss can slow and begin to stabilize by the 2060s.

This rapid action is the difference between facing 3 meters' sea-level rise early next century (with current emissions) versus that amount in one or two thousand years.

"Preserving the Earth's cryosphere now means reaching 1.5 ∘C by 2100 and lowering temperatures towards 1 ∘C thereafter," says Dr. James Kirkham, Chief Scientist to the Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) high-level group of nations and an author on the Report.

A Call to Action at COP30

The publication of the Report comes as global leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, for the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP30). The site of COP30 itself is vulnerable to climate change impacts.

Dr. Kirkham issued a stern challenge to the policymakers: “Policy makers at COP30 must stop denying this physical reality and finally deliver the deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions need to protect global security from accelerating ice losses".

"The best and worst part of these findings is that none of this damage is necessary," added Pam Pearson, ICCI's Director. "We have all the tools to change, as the new HPA pathways detail. We just need to use them".

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