The Global Wind Race: Offshore Power on Track to Triple by 2030, Despite Headwinds

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The global push for offshore wind energy remains a powerful force, with capacity on track to nearly triple worldwide by 2030, even as some key markets face short-term uncertainty. A new analysis by Ember and the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA) highlights that strong, clear government targets are the cornerstone of this growth, signaling confidence in offshore wind as a pillar of the future energy system.

The Global Target Tally: 27 Nations Lead the Charge

A total of 27 countries have established national offshore wind targets, underscoring a broad international commitment. These national ambitions, excluding China, combine to reach 263 GW by 2030.

Regional Powerhouses

Europe remains the front-runner, with 15 countries targeting a combined 99 GW by 2030. Germany (30 GW) and the Netherlands (21 GW) account for over half of this capacity. The United Kingdom holds the largest single national target, aiming for 43-50 GW.

Asia is rapidly building its pipeline, with a combined ambition of 41 GW from South Korea, Taiwan, and Viet Nam. India is targeting 30-37 GW by 2030, while Japan is aiming for 30-45 GW auctioned by 2040, including a significant 15 GW of floating offshore wind.

China, while not yet having a single national target, has laid out a highly ambitious provincial and industry plan. The recent Beijing Declaration 2.0 stated that annual installed offshore wind power capacity shall be no less than 15 GW during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030). This is almost double the 8 GW average achieved in the preceding five years. Already, 11 coastal provinces have set 2025 targets totaling 64 GW.

Floating Wind and Future Ambition

Governments are looking beyond short-term milestones, with 18 countries announcing goals for capacity post-2030.

Seven countries have also set specific targets for floating offshore wind. This newer technology, though at an earlier stage, is crucial as much of the potential in countries like Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, and Spain lies in deeper waters suitable for floating turbines.

The US has a national target of 30 GW by 2030 and an aggressive 15 GW floating target by 2035. However, the national picture is complex, with recent policy headwinds contrasting sharply with the combined 84 GW of targets set by 11 states, showing continued momentum at the sub-national level.

The Next Wave: 88 Countries with Untapped Potential

The biggest opportunity for global growth lies in the 88 countries that have been assessed to have offshore wind potential but have not yet set national targets.

Of these, nine are members of GOWA, signaling their intent, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Malta, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Latin America is emerging as a critical region, with Colombia already having a target and Brazil—which joined GOWA at COP28 and holds the COP30 Presidency—poised to be next. Its marine leasing framework and strong domestic supply chain make it the most advanced market in the region, with its first auction expected in 2026.

In other regions, countries like Morocco, which will begin building Africa's first offshore wind farm in 2029, and Azerbaijan, which is preparing for development tenders in the Caspian Sea by 2026, are actively developing plans.

An Urgent Call to Action

Despite an overall global tripling of capacity projected by 2030—from 83 GW in 2024 to 238 GW—most individual nations, including the US, Japan, and Korea, are currently forecasted to fall short of their specific 2030 targets.

This gap between ambition and reality is a clear message: while targets are successfully stimulating market growth, urgent action on policy support, infrastructure, and supply chain pressures is now critical. As GOWA Head of Secretariat Amisha Patel stated, "Achieving the Paris Agreement goals depends on large-scale offshore wind deployment... To countries thinking about agreeing new targets or extending existing targets, the message is clear: now is the time to act".

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