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Thursday, September 28, 2017

The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook: ASEAN is on Track to Reach Their Energy Intensity Target



During the press conference for the 35th ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) and Associated Meetings today, ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) announced the launch of the 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO5). The Philippine Secretary of Energy, Alfonso G. Cusi, stated, “The Outlook provides us with pathway to address our long-term goals of achieving energy security, accessibility and affordability within the framework of sustainable development, as guided by our policy document, the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025.”

The AEO5 was developed based on the energy policies and targets of 10 ASEAN Member States (AMS). The final results of AEO5 are in-line with AMS’ expectations of their future energy landscape, in particular with their national expectations of future economic and population growth.

ASEAN energy demand continues to surpass global growth, mainly driven by its targeted economic growth of 5.4% per year into 2025. The Total Primary Energy Supply is expected to increase by a factor of 2.3 times over the period of 2015 to 2040. However, through a combination of energy efficiency (EE) efforts and renewable energy (RE) contributions, energy savings of about 25 % could be realised.

Electric power capacity in the region is projected to triple over the period to cope with the strongly rising electricity demand in ASEAN, which contributes to a considerable reduction of traditional biomass usage in the region.

Overall, the AEO5 indicates that ASEAN is well on track to reach the APAEC energy intensity reduction target of 20% by 2020 and 30% by 2025 based on the 2005 level.

The region’s aspirational target to increase the share of RE to 23% by 2025 in the energy mix will require further enhanced efforts from all stakeholders. As ASEAN is strongly committed to reduce carbon emissions from the energy sector intervention over the long-term, substantial reductions of 16% carbon intensity levels from the present value are projected to be realised in 2040.

“We believe that AEO5 will contribute to broad appreciation of the challenges of energy security, accessibility and affordability in driving economic prosperity, social development and environment sustainability within the framework of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC),” Dr. Sanjayan Velautham, ACE Executive Director, stated during the press conference. The AEO5 was presented to the Ministers during the 35th AMEM, and the Ministers acknowledged that the AEO5 outlines the feasibility of achieving substantial energy savings through significant EE and RE injections, as demonstrated in the advanced scenarios.

The AEO5 is a joint output of ACE with the active involvement of all 10 AMS under the directive of the Regional Energy Policy and Planning Sub-sector Network, and is supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) through the ASEAN-German Energy Programme (AGEP). Maria-José Poddey, Principal Advisor for AGEP, GIZ mentioned, “We trust that the AEO5 will be of benefit to policymakers and stakeholders to develop policy frameworks that ensure sustainable energy security in each AMS and the region.”

The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook is available on www.aseanenergy.org

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