Metro Manila’s largest component LGU, Quezon City, will still be the Philippines’ most populous city by 2020. This is according to an analysis conducted by global property website Lamudi Philippines (www.lamudi.com.ph) using the annual average population growth rate issued by the Philippine Statistics Authority in 2010.
Interestingly, the roster of the top 10 most populous Philippine cities in 2010 will be quite different with that predicted for 2020. For instance, the City of Manila will be overtaken by Caloocan and Davao by 2020. These two cities’ populations are growing rapidly and are predicted to surge to 1.88 and 1.83 million, respectively, while Manila’s is predicted to increase to 1.72 million. According to the data from the PSA, these three cities’ populations grow on average 2.37, 2.36, and 0.44 percent per year, respectively.
In addition, by 2020 there will be seven Philippine cities projected to have populations of more than 1 million, and five of the top 10 are cities outside Metro Manila (Davao, Zamboanga, Cebu, Antipolo, and Dasmariñas). Interestingly, by 2020, Dasmariñas, whose population grows on average 5.4 percent per year, will have more people than Taguig and Pasig, Metro Manila’s seventh and ninth most populated cities, respectively, in 2010.
By 2020, Dasmariñas population will grow to 976,146 (seventh), compared to Taguig’s and Pasig’s 958,962 and 887,959, respectively.
Furthermore, the populations of Zamboanga, Cebu, and Antipolo are predicted to breach the 1 million mark by 2020, which put them at fifth, sixth, and seventh positions.
2025 and Beyond
Lamudi also used the annual population growth rates recorded in 2010 to predict what will be the most populated Philippine cities by 2025. The analysis found that by then 11 cities will have populations of more than 1 million, and two of these are in Cavite: Dasmariñas (1.27 million; fifth) and Bacoor (1.11 million; tenth).
According to Lamudi, although the 2010 annual growth rates are expected to change after the results of the 2015 Population and Household Census are made available in early 2016, we can safely assume that the cities’ respective population growth will more or less behave the same way.
Jacqueline van den Ende, managing of Lamudi Philippines, said that what’s quite interesting about these findings is that cities that are growing really fast are those also popular with online property-hunters or where massive real estate projects are currently underway.
“Quezon City, for example, is still the Philippines’ most searched city for properties, said van den Ende. It is also here where many real estate projects are currently underway, such as Vertis North and Cloverleaf, two township projects by Ayala Land.”
Furthermore, Dasmariñas and Bacoor, the two Cavite cities that are closest to Metro Manila, are growing very fast and are predicted to have more than 1 million residents by 2025. These two cities are considered “bedroom communities,” with many residents commuting to and from Metro Manila for employment.
Lamudi data also shows that online search for Bacoor and Dasmarinas properties is growing rapidly, according to van den Ende. “Search volume for these two cities surged 67 and 72 percent, respectively, from the first to the second quarter of 2015.”